Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Next round of Russian protests.  On 31 August, Russia’s opposition will file an application for another mass protest in Moscow on 15 September.  Organizer Sergey Davidis says: “We expect that many people will take part  We expect a rise in public discontent, in people’s readiness to come out onto the streets after a break and in connection with the adoption of a suite of repressive laws.”  However, it is possible that the “adoption of repressive laws” may not be having quite the galvanizing effect that the opposition would like to see.  According to an opinion poll published by the Levada Centre on 28 August, 56% of those asked do not think that the recent crackdown on the opposition and tougher legislation is the start of new political repressions.  Only 27% believe that it is.

*** Indonesia ups defence spending, placates China.  Although Indonesia is to increase its defence budget by 6.6% to 77.7 trillion rupiah ($8.1bn), it is being careful not to upset China.  On the contrary, Indonesia’s defence spending plans include joint production with China of C-705 anti-ship missiles.  The final agreement for the 135km-range naval missiles is expected to be negotiated by the year-end with signatures to be appended next March.

Amidst increasing tensions between China and its neighbours in the South China Sea, Indonesia has better relations with Beijing than most in Southeast Asia.  Last month, Indonesian special forces held a joint exercise with their Chinese counterparts in Shandong.

Dr Bantarto Bandoro of the Indonesian Defence University says: “There is wide recognition that it is time for Indonesia to seek alternative resources for its defence needs, and China is an important partner.”  He adds that China is more willing to share and transfer technology and it “does not impose conditions”.

The US has responded to closer Indonesia-China ties by offering more than the 24 F-16 fighters that are to be supplied on a grant agreed in late 2011.

*** Chavez’s growing debt to China.  According to Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, the China-Venezuela bilateral cooperation fund has received a fresh injection of $6.0bn for works and projects in Venezuela.  Of the total, $4.0bn will be provided by China’s development bank, with the remaining $2.0bn transferred from Venezuela’s National Development Fund (Fonden), an off-budget oil revenue windfall account.  According to a 28 August statement from the foreign ministry in Caracas, the fresh injection was agreed on 10 August.  Venezuela is now in hoc to China for some $40bn and climbing.  According to Energy Minister Rafael Ramírez, the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) sends 640,000 barrels of oil/day to China, of which 264,000b/d is in payment for the loans.