Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** South Korea on heightened alert.  Last Friday (21 September), South Korea increased its state of alert along its western sea border in response to cross-border infiltrations by North Korean fishing boats.  Sources in Seoul say that seven North Korean fishing vessels crossed the demarcation line on 12 September but retreated following warnings from South Korean patrol boats.  Further testing of the line by groups of two or three North Korean boats occurred on 14, 15, and 20 September, leading to the raised alert status.

A South Korean official said: “Our military is closely monitoring to figure out the intention of the North Korean boats’ border crossings.  If North Korean boats repeatedly cross [the boundary] for fishing the military will promptly and sternly respond, without hesitation.”

In November 2010, North Korea fired artillery shells at the front-line island of Yeonpyeong killing four North Koreans.

*** Rise in militant activity in Russia’s Dagestan.  Russia’s Interior Ministry said on 24 September that there had been “a significant upswing” in military activity in the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan.  There were nine terrorist attacks during the previous weeks targeting police officers, servicemen, and businesses.  In response, the police killed 23 militants and arrested eight insurgents.

The unrest in Dagestan is an extension of the Islamic insurgency that began in Chechnya but in recent years has spread to neighbouring republics.

*** Turkey rejects Israeli overtures.  Faced with the prospect of war with Iran, deteriorating relations with Egypt, and uncertainty over Syria, Lebanon, and even Jordan, Israel has been putting out feelers to Turkey.  Relations have been very strained since the May 2010 Israeli attack on the Mavi Marmara, a Turkish aid ship for the Gaza Strip.

Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was quoted recently by Reuters as saying that he was open to the idea of Israel making an “expression of regret” over the Mavi Marmara incident.  And Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has said of Israel-Turkey relations: “I think it is in our common interest to find a way to be able to stop, to arrest, the slide in our relationship and resume a fruitful dialogue.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s response has been cold, to say the least.  Speaking to reporters during a visit to Ukraine last week, he said: “Our response to those who have called on us to talk about Israel has been clear.  As long as Israel fails to meet any of these conditions normalization is impossible.”  The conditions Erdogan was referring to are to apologize unconditionally for the Mavi Marmara incident, to pay compensation for the Turks who were killed in the incident, and to lift the blockade of Gaza.