Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Indian warning on Pakistani spy network.  It has been reported in India that last week, Indian counter-intelligence sent a special advisory to police intelligence units and special branches in southern India warning about Pakistani spy activity.

The advisory said that Pakistan had developed a “formidable” network in Sri Lanka with a view to spying on key Indian defence and strategic installations in the southern region.  The advisory called for “a special drive to target ISI [Pakistani intelligence] backed espionage networks in the area”.

The advisory notes: “There is specific credible information which suggests that Pakistan’s ISI is now focusing in a big way on expanding its networks in southern India.  This is reflected in some of the recent incidents like spreading rumours to foment communal trouble in the wake of Assam violence...Recent information also reveals that a good network of ISI operatives is working out of Sri Lanka now.”

*** Russian defence industry to quadruple output.  On 2 October, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitriy Rogozin said that the output of Russia’s defence industries will increase by 80% by 2015 and that it will quadruple by 2030.

Rogozin told the Russia Calling forum: “Taking into account the forecast growth trends, the industrial output of the defence-industrial complex in general will increase by 80% in 2015 [against 2011], by 50% in 2020 [against 2015], by 30% in 2025 [against 2020], and by more than 20% in 2030 [against 2025].”

*** Nigeria’s Islamist Boko Haram declares war on northern leaders.  The radical Islamist group Boko Haram has declared war on governors and government officials in Nigeria’s Muslim north.  In a video, its leader Abubakar Shekau warned: “This message is for those in authority (emirs, governors, and government officials)...You have no resting place again and no resting time again...You have messed up yourselves and you have messed up your own situation.”

The video also denied reports that the group is negotiating with the central government, saying “we are not in dialogue with anyone”.

Shekau claimed that women associated with Boko Haram were being targeted by the security forces, with 7-10 currently in jail where they are being tortured.  He warned that the group would retaliate by focusing on women related to security and state officials.