Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in Berlin last week for a three-day visit.  He demanded that Turkey should be granted full membership of the European Union by 2023, and Germany’s Spiegel website talked about Erdogan “swaggering through the German capital”.  Certainly there was a swagger to the Turkish prime minister’s demeanour, reflecting his belief that the tables are turning and that a Europe in crisis is now more needful of a vibrant Turkey than in the past.  But the reaction in Germany was almost entirely negative.  There were three aspects to this.

The first was the repetition of the long-standing view that Turkey is not a European country and is unsuited culturally to membership of the EU.  Die Welt, for instance, wrote:  “The EU is a community of values, not an educational institution.  Turkey may be experiencing an economic boom, but it is not a democratically secure country.”

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung added: “[Turkey] would not only be more Islamic [than the rest of Europe] but also more conservative.  The majority of the Turkish representatives elected to the European parliament would certainly have no great sympathy for the alternative lifestyles that Europe has committed to protecting...The notion of a European parliament with Turkish members still requires a lot of imagination...”

The second aspect of the German reaction to Erdogan’s demand for full EU membership in 10 years time was to say that the EU has far more pressing internal matters to deal with.  On this theme, the Berliner Zeitung wrote: “What an absurd appearance!  Europe currently has other things to do than think about new members.  Our attention is absorbed by the euro crisis.  There is a risk the EU will break up.  In this situation, those who call for the inclusion of a large, but also foreign, country like Turkey will not find much empathy.  In the current situation it is difficult for the EU to even consider making a small country like Croatia a member.”

The financial daily Handelsbatt agreed, saying: “Europe...must first tackle the debt crisis and poor growth, high youth unemployment, and internal conflicts before it can take a serious look at Turkey.”

Finally, there was a feeling that Erdogan’s confidence was over-played and that Turkey is still essentially a weak petitioner which can be made to wait for as long as it suits the EU.  Interestingly, this was the view taken by both the main financial newspapers – the Financial Times Deutschland and Handelsbatt.

The Financial Times Deutschland, while acknowledging that Turkey has become much less of a beggar at Europe’s door, still sensed weakness.  It wrote: “[Erdogan’s] attempt to [make Turkey] an independent power in the Arab region has failed.  The skirmish with Syria and the diplomatic conflict with Russia have brought Erdogan to the limits of his policy to remain a good neighbour.  In the end he will have no other choice but to turn back to the political and economic centre that is Europe.”

Handelsbatt agreed, writing: “The self-confidence that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan showed in Berlin does not actually reflect the situation in which Turkey finds itself.  The return to Europe is due to developments in the Middle East.  Turkey oriented itself towards the east and south in an attempt to gain new prominence in the Middle East and the Caucasus.  This strategy has not worked very quickly, though.  The Arab Spring, which Turkey had seen as a welcome opportunity to present itself as an alternative model to the despots in the region, has not brought the expected awakening.  The civil war in Syria is also a brutal reminder to Erdogan that his leadership in Ankara still leaves much to be desired.  His foreign policy principle of being a 'good neighbour' has failed, also with respect to Israel.  The return to Europe is one of sober pragmatism.”

The Kurdish question

The German assessment that Turkey ‘s apparent strength could prove to be a mirage is in line with our own recent reports about the dangers of Erdogan’s foreign policy.  As we have highlighted in a number of recent reports, Turkey under Erdogan has gone from “zero problems with neighbours” to having almost no friendly neighbours other than Azerbaijan.  And it is hard to see what the upside is, other than a degree of US gratitude, which is not necessarily what Erdogan is seeking and is in any case limited by Turkey’s hostility to Israel.

The downside, on other hand, is easy to discern: it is the danger of an escalation in the activities of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) guerrillas, buoyed by the newfound freedom of action for the Syrian Kurds, the example of the deepening autonomy of the Iraqi Kurds, and support from Iran.

The Kurdish danger is increased by what Turkish experts say is the mishandling of Kurdish affairs by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government since 2009.  The mistake, they say, has been allowing the development of the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) in the Kurdish southeast of Turkey.  Critics of the government say that in 2009 ministers prevented the police from conducting operations against the KCK and reduced military operations against the PKK.  The government even asked PKK leaders which governors and police chiefs they objected to.

As the Zaman daily noted this week, as a consequence of this the PKK has gone from being principally a rural organization into “a dominant political actor in major urban centres as well”.  This can be seen in the difference between the 2004 and the 2009 local elections.  For Zaman: “The AKP lost the battle against the KCK network and it is not possible to reverse this defeat now”.

Local sources now say that the two critical municipalities of Van and Mardin will be lost to pro-PKK parties.  This, they say, is in line with the PKK’s strategy of forcing the AKP from the Kurdish region, after which the government will have to sit down and negotiate with the KCK.

We draw two conclusions from all this.  German analysts are correct in saying that Erdogan’s swagger lacks the substance to back it up.  Secondly, as we have been saying from the start of the Arab Spring, the Kurdish question will have to be addressed seriously before this current revolutionary period has run its course - and the Kurdish cause is being greatly helped by the misjudgements of Erdogan himself.  JdeC.