Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

The past week has provided three further important pointers to the thinking of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak on the question of a unilateral strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons.  The first was a 31 October speech in London given by Barak to the British-Israel Communications and Research Centre.  The second was an interview given by Kadima party chairman and Knesset opposition leader Shaul Mofaz to Voice of Israel on 4 November.  And the third was an interview given by Netanyahu to Israel’s Channel 2 TV on 5 November.

In his 31 October speech, Barak re-emphasized the point that Israel is prepared to act on its own if necessary, saying that it would not outsource its security interests “even to our closest and most trusted allies”.  He said that the State of Israel “was founded precisely so that our fate would remain in our own hands”.

Mofaz’s 4 November interview concentrated on the excitement caused by Palestinian National Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas’s comments about possibly renouncing the right of return and settling for a Palestinian state within the pre-1967 borders.  However, for us the most interesting aspect of this interview was Mofaz’s aside about Netanyahu’s attitude towards Iran.

We have reported many times that Netanyahu is almost messianic about the need to prevent Iran going nuclear.  Mofaz confirmed this.  Explaining why Netanyahu has not moved on the Palestinian issue, he said: “Bibi [Netanyahu] is obsessed about an Israeli strike on Iran.  It’s an obsession.  He deals with only that.  I want to tell you that in the 70 days I was in the government, more than half the meetings Netanyahu arranged with me involved attempts to persuade me to agree to strike Iran without US and Western support.”

Mofaz added: “He’s preparing for a nuclear spring.  This is his plan.  He won’t be dealing with the Palestinian issue because it’s of no interest to him.  He has an obsession with the Iranian issue.”

Netanyahu, himself, hardly denies this, and in his 5 November interview with Channel 2 he responded to Mofaz’s criticism by saying: “You know what's dangerous?  It's not what I'm saying, it's what Iran does.  Iran is getting closer, and we can be blind and stick our head in the sand.”

He also made much the same point as Barak about Israel’s willingness to act alone.  He said: “If we can bring about US action or a situation where there's no reason to act - because the sanctions...are working - that's excellent.  But the question we need to ask, as Jews, is about the time when we had no state and no army.  When someone threatened to exterminate us, and acted in practice to exterminate us, we went to beg others.  So today we're not begging - we're preparing.”

He also emphasized that he was prepared, if necessary, to act without US approval.  He said: “When Ben-Gurion declared the state's establishment, was it with US agreement?  When Levi Eshkol was forced to act in order to remove the chokehold around our neck before 1967, was it done with US agreement?  If someone sitting here, as the prime minister of Israel, cannot act on issues that are cardinal for the state's existence and for ensuring its future and security, and if he only relies on the agreement of others, he's not worthy of leading.”

Finally, Netanyahu was asked: “Can you pledge, Mr Prime Minister, that if you are elected again, Iran will not have a nuclear programme by the end of your next term in office?”.  He replied, without further elaboration or equivocation: “Yes”.  It is important to note that his pledge was to stop Iran’s nuclear programme, not just to prevent it acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Much has been made in recent says about the report that the military and intelligence top brass prevented Netanyahu launching a strike against Iran in 2010.  But Netanyahu is returning to the electorate on 22 January, and there is no ambiguity at all about his approach to Iran.  If the electorate renews his mandate, then the top brass will have to fall in with his wishes.

Note: In his 31 October speech in London, Barak said that Israel will take military action should it identify an attempt to transfer Syrian chemical weapons to terrorists.  He said: "Taking into account the warm ties between Hezbollah and Syria, I have instructed the IDF to closely monitor the possible transfer of advanced weapons systems and Assad's chemical arsenal into Lebanon.  We will take any necessary action to prevent this.”

He also referred to the changes in Egypt, warning that “the Muslim Brotherhood regime provides a tailwind for Hamas in Gaza and extremists in Jordan".