Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

We looked last week at the increased support in the 28 October Ukrainian election for the far right Freedom party, which gained over 10% of the vote (and 37 seats, 32 via the proportional party-list system and 12 first-past-the-post constituencies), having garnered only 1% of the vote in 2007.  But just as startling was the surge in support for the Communist Party of Ukraine (CPU).  After years of declining support, there had been doubts as to whether the CPU would even get past the 5% barrier, but it in fact took over 13% of the vote on the party lists, winning 32 PR seats.  This is up from 5.39% in 2007.

Local sources say that the relative success of the CPU was the result of hidden support from the ruling Party of Regions (which looks to have won 187 seats, 73 via the party lists and 114 constituencies) because it needs the CPU’s support in parliament.  It has been noted that Ukraine’s main TV channels were generous in the prime time coverage allocated to the CPU for its election broadcasts.  The CPU is widely seen as a satellite of the party in power, and its support could prove crucial to President Viktor Yanykovych should he seek to amend the constitution ahead of the 2015 presidential election.

The pro-business Party of Regions, which is financed by wealthy industrialists, went into the election defending its record forcefully, and contrasting the "stability" which has been achieved in the past two years with the "chaos" during the premiership in 2007-10 of the now-jailed Yuliya Tymoshenko, leader of Fatherland.

The Communists have been in the pro-Yanukovych majority since he was elected in 2010.  However, they campaigned against the "dictatorship of oligarchy" and proposed what they describe as an "alternative to the capitalist decline".

They also promised to raise the status of the Russian language, following a nationwide referendum, and they want to "reinforce state sovereignty" by participating in Russia-led economic blocs, termination of cooperation with the IMF, and the revision of "discriminatory" agreements within the WTO.

Fatherland, Freedom, and the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, headed by boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko (which won 40 seats, 34 via the party lists) have mounted street protests demanding a recount in 13 electoral districts.  The government is opposed to this.  But even if the 13 seats were to go to the opposition, the Party of Regions seems certain to secure a majority in the 450-seat assembly with the support of the CPU and others (44 seats went to independents).  The authorities have until 12 November to announce the final result.