Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Back in June, and again in July, we suggested that “something may be afoot in North Korea”.  As respected and informed an observer as the International Crisis Group (ICG) issued a report on 25 July saying that there were no indications that North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un intended to pursue economic reforms, but our own sources were continuing to pick up indications of change.  As ever with North Korea, it is impossible to be certain about anything, but once again there is a sense that something may be changing, albeit slowly and inconsistently.

One pointer we emphasized in our July analysis was the unusual level of economic news being published by Rodong Sinmun, the organ of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.  In the first three months of 2012, the number of economic stories covered by the paper went up from 132 in January to 141 in February and then to 233 in March.  Increased visits to industrial sites by Premier Choe Yong-rim were also thought by our sources to be pointing in the same direction.

Now the Choson Sinbo, widely seen as the North Korean regime’s mouthpiece in Japan, has reported on a potentially significant re-ordering of the country’s decision-making process, which hitherto has been dominated by the country’s leader.  The paper has reported the establishment of a new “cabinet government system” for the discussion of “economy-related matters”.  The paper added that “the order is being established and appropriate measures are being taken in order to maximize the potential of the national economy”.

The paper also highlighted the point we made in June, namely the continuing frequency of Choe Yong-rim’s visits to economic establishments.  The paper said: “Efforts to invigorate the economy are being stressed at a different level that is unprecedented.”

Only a day before this report, on 8 November, the same newspaper was predicting that relations with South Korea could thaw if a new South Korean president were to be elected in December.

It said North Korean economic officials are predicting that “South-North economic cooperation projects” could “take off at a high speed” if “objective” conditions are met.  It did not elaborate on what was meant by “objective”, but the comment was interesting nonetheless.

Another interesting development were photographs released by the North’s Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) of a special gathering in Pyongyang on 29 October to mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the Kim Il sung Military University.

The interesting point was that the photographs of the event showed 30 foreign guests, mostly diplomats, seated around Kim Jong-un.  Such a happening would have been unthinkable during Kim Jong-il’s rule when only Russian and Chinese ambassadors were allowed to meet with the leader in person.

North Korea watchers in Seoul say this is another example of Kim Jong-un indicating that North Korea is no longer completely cut-off from the rest of the world.

On the other hand, on 12 November researchers at the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University reported on evidence that North Korea is continuing actively to develop its long-range missiles.  The institute said that North Korea “has conducted at least two, possibly more, tests of large rocket motors at its Sohae Satellite Launching Station, the most recent in mid-September 2012”.

It added that these tests are critical for the development of new rockets, and it said that construction activity at the Sohae site suggested that the infrastructure for future launches of long-range rockets “much larger than either the Unha-3 or the KN-08” was being built.

Finally, and ominously, the report suggested that “in the aftermath of the US and South Korean presidential elections, Pyongyang may embark on a new round of activities in the first half of 2013, including rocket and nuclear tests, that will contribute to further development of its nuclear deterrent”.

This report suggests that caution remains the order of the day when dealing with North Korea, but the circumstantial evidence for some change on the economic front, at least, is building and warrants close watching.  JdeC.