Caribbean & Central America - December 2012 (ISSN 1741-4458)

*** GRENADA GOVERNMENT IN UPHILL BATTLE. The ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) led by Prime Minister Tillman Thomas remains in disarray only months before an election is expected.

The NDC government was elected in July 2008 for a maximum five-year mandate, and it is difficult to see how it can overcome its problems even if it were to hang on to the bitter end.  Prior to July 2008, the New National Party (NNP) held power for 13 years, and recent opinion polls have suggested that it could win as many as 14 out of 15 seats if an election were held today.  In 2008, the NDC won by 11 seats to 4.

The NDC’s principal problem is disunity.  Five of the NDC’s 11 MPs were expelled from the party at its September convention.  One of those expelled, former party chairman Stanford Simon, illustrated the depth of the division earlier this month when asked if he would still vote NDC at the next election.  He said: “No, I will not.  My position is very clear on that.  I do not believe that they have this country at heart as they have said.  What is happening now within the National Democratic Congress is not what I have fought for.”

Later in November, former labour minister Glynn Roberts, who had resigned from the government in September, said that she intended to play a key role in the formation of a new party.

Disunity in the ruling party is not the only thing going for the NNP.  Not surprisingly it is making much of the unemployment rate, which has grown from just over 20% in 2007 to 40%.  The IMF is projecting GDP growth of just 0.5% for 2012, which is the lowest for the Caribbean and half its average growth projection for the tourism-dependent economies of the region.

*** ELECTION TIME FOR BERMUDA. Bermuda’s Premier Paula Cox of the Progressive Labour Party (PLP) has called a general election for 17 December.  The PLP is hoping to secure a fourth successive term, but this may be optimistic.  A recent opinion poll put the opposition One Bermuda Alliance (OBA) ahead by 11 percentage points.  There are 36 seats in parliament.  In the 2007 election, the PLP took 22 seats to the 14 won by the OBA.  The PLP has been criticized in the past for its anti-white sentiments.  The OBA is the lineal descendant of the United Bermuda Party that held power from 1968-1998 (8 consecutive terms) but was dissolved in June 2011.

*** BOOM IN TOURISM FOR GUYANA. Tourist arrivals in Guyana were up 17.7% year-on-year as of end-October.  The country has been experiencing record-breaking months all year.  Only May failed to provide record arrivals.  The US is the most important source of tourism, providing 57% of visitors.  The Caribbean comes second, with 21%, followed by Canada (14%), Europe (5%), Latin America (2%), and the rest of the world (1%).

Guyana’s economic position is comparatively enviable.  It grew by 5% in 2011, and GDP is projected by the IMF to grow by about 4% this year “supported by increased activity in bauxite, gold, rice, and the services sectors”.  Looking further ahead, the IMF says that “infrastructure projects...along with private mining investments should sustain growth levels at around 5%”.

• Bahamas referendum postponed

The vote on the legalization of gambling web shops in The Bahamas has been postponed from 3 December until 28 January 2013.  The government will not attempt to remove the ban on casinos.