Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In last week’s issue we reported India’s Union Minister Farooq Abdullah as saying on 26 November that while India is extending the hand of friendship to China on the one hand, on the other it remains cautious about Chinese intentions.  Explaining to a gathering of students why India is deploying another division to the disputed Kashmir region of Ladakh, the minister said: “I want to tell you that in one place we are befriending China but we have also learnt a lesson from China and that is why we remain cautious as well.”  There has been more evidence in the past week of this Indian caution towards China.

The first indicator was the statement to parliament on 3 December by Defence Minister AK Antony in which he said: “Government is aware of the activities of China along the border and is fully seized of the security imperatives of the country.”

Antony was responding to a question about whether intelligence indicated the possibility of China triggering incidents along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in order “to divert the attention from its own domestic troubles”.  He was also asked if the increased Chinese activities along the LAC might be a “prelude to larger incidents”.

Not quite saying yes, Antony replied: “Necessary steps, as required, have been initiated.”  He mentioned the development of infrastructure and the improvement of the operational capabilities of the armed forces “to secure the desired national security objectives”.

The second indicator was the revelation on 4 December by India’s navy chief Admiral Devendra Kumar Joshi that the navy is training for deployment in the South China Sea to protect India’s oil interests off the coast of Vietnam from Chinese claims.  This coincides with confirmation that the new strategic naval base at Ramkonda, about 50km south of the Eastern Navy Command headquarters in Visakhapatnam, is set to come into commission next year and that it will be the base for Indian naval assets to be deployed to Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, and the Pacific.

When work on the project began in 2005, India’s Eastern Naval Command had just 15 major warships.  Now it has 46.

The really interesting point is the way in which India has beefed up its eastern command to match that of its 48-strong western fleet which deals with the traditional threat from Pakistan.

India’s first indigenous nuclear-powered submarine, which is based in the east, is set to complete its sea trials by the middle of 2013 and to come into commission by the end of 2013. INS Arihant is intended to complete India’s nuclear triad – that is the ability to launch nuclear weapons by land, air, and sea.  Speaking on 3 December, Admiral Joshi said: “We expect to have good news for the nation very soon.”

It is expected that INS Arihant will eventually be armed with 750km K-15 submarine-launched nuclear-tipped missiles and the 3,500km K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, which are under development.

Note: India’s Minister of State for Home Affairs Mullappally Ramachandran told parliament on 4 December, in a written reply, that there are about 2,500 militants in camps in Pakistan – and that the Pakistani intelligence and security agencies are actively supporting them in their infiltration bids into Indian Kashmir.

The minister wrote: "The terror infrastructure in Pakistan or PoK [Pakistan Administered Kashmir] remains intact and infiltration attempts from across the border still continue to pose a challenge to the security forces.  Reports indicate that there are 42 militants’ camps functioning across the borders, 25 in PoK and 17 in Pakistan with about 2,500 militants."

He added: "The India-Pakistan border, particularly the Jammu region, is highly vulnerable to infiltration from the Pakistan side...Pakistan-based terrorists with the support of Pak Rangers/Pak army, often make abortive attempts to sneak into the Indian territory."

More encouragingly, however, there has been some decline in infiltration efforts during the past five years, falling from 535 in 2007 to 247 in 2011.  This year there has been a slight increase again, with 249 attempts as of October.  The figures for the other years since 2007 are 342 in 2008, 485 in 2009, and 489 in 2010.