Courcy's Special Alerts

The rising tension between China and Japan over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is an issue that this service has been following closely for many months. As we suggested in the 30 January issue of Courcy’s Intelligence Brief, the problem now for China is that Japan is responding as one would expect, by increasing its defence spending for the first time in 11 years. In the past few days, there have been further signs that Japan under its new prime minister Shinzo Abe will not be cowed by China.

First of all Abe has confirmed that on 8 February he will reconvene a panel of experts to look at the issue of Japan removing its long-standing ban on participating in collective self-defence. The indications are that Japan wishes to allow for collective self-defence in a situation where US naval vessels are attacked or in order to intercept a ballistic missile targeting the US.

In another evocative move, Abe visited the regional headquarters of the Coast Guard in Naha, Okinawa, on 3 February. This is the Coast Guard headquarters charged with the security of the waters around the Senkaku Islands. Abe told about 50 officers that he expected attempted infringements by China to continue and that the government will continue to do everything to help the officers safeguard Japan’s territorial integrity.

In turn, China has been sending a message to the United States. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Daily has reported on a Chinese military drill last month in which an Asian enemy force was supported by an English-speaking ally. According to the report, Chinese pilots were caught off guard when they intercepted radio chatter in English. Local analysts say the inclusion of this scenario in the drill was clearly aimed at telling the US that China was preparing for a possible military clash.

On 20 January, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had said of the Senkaku’s: "We acknowledge they are under the administration of Japan and we oppose any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration." She also reiterated that the Japan-US Security Treaty obliges the United States to defend Japan in case of hostilities over the Senkakus.

Separately, North Korea’s state media announced on 3 February that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un has “made an important decision to protect the country’s security and sovereignty at a major military meeting”. The announcement has added to fears that Pyongyang is on the verge of conducting its third nuclear test, and in response the US and South Korea will today begin a three-day naval exercise including a US nuclear submarine and Aegis destroyer.

South Korea’s nuclear envoy Lim Sung-nam has been in Beijing to urge China to exert pressure on Pyongyang not to go ahead with the test. Given China’s current mood over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and the US’s role in boosting Japan’s resistance to Chinese pressure, how Beijing responds to this request (and what price it may be seeking for a positive response) is of enormous potential significance.

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From: Courcy’s Intelligence Service, c/o Intelligence Research Ltd, 61 Old Street, London, EC1V 9HW. Email: editorial@ courcyint.com. Phone: 020-7251-0012