Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Until North Korea’s nuclear test on 12 February, there was a widespread assumption that President Barack Obama was heading to Israel next month to persuade Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu not to attack Iran, and that he would be successful – helped in part by news that Iran appears to have resumed converting some of its higher-grade enriched uranium into reactor fuel, thus slowing the growth of its stockpile of material suitable for making weapons.  However, all calculations have been upset by Pyongyang’s test, and the hawkish tendency in Israel is once again in the ascendancy.

Former foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman put it to Army Radio on 13 February: “Anyone who thinks sanctions or negotiations will stop Iran is wrong.”  Alex Fishman, writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, concluded: “Anything that United States President Barack Obama tells us when he comes here next month about the tough negotiations that he plans to hold with Iran will be taken with a grain of salt. Anyone who wants to know where the Iranian nuclear project will progress to next should just take a long, hard look at North Korea.”

Amir Rapaport in Maariv took a similar line, writing: “The announcement by North Korea that it conducted an underground nuclear test should not be considered ‘foreign news’ by Israel: there is more than good reason to assume that Iran, which officially condemned the North Korean test, was actively involved in it and that the test moves the Islamic Republic one step closer to being able to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile capable of reaching Israel.”

Rapaport also argues: “What can the Iranians themselves learn from this week’s events?  That leaders who in effect caved in to Western demands and put the brakes on their nuclear project – leaders like Muammar Gadhafi and Saddam Hussein – are no longer with us.  In contrast, the stubborn leadership of North Korea has survived and even passed on its nuclear project to the next generation.  It now seems that Tehran and Pyongyang are galloping together toward nuclear capability.”

In Israel Hayom Boaz Bismuth wrote: “North Korean handling of international pressure is an object lesson for Tehran, which hopes to do what it always does and use the upcoming meetings they have planned with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Western power to gain more time.”

Bismuth was also critical of Washington and the Obama administration, saying: “Washington has failed to prevent North Korea becoming a nuclear power.  During the presidency of Barack Obama, the United States has sought to avoid conflict.  The Obama administration has put Asia ahead of the Middle East on its list of priorities.  The failure to rein in Pyongyang is Obama’s failure.”

On 10 February, before the North Korean test, Israel’s Army Radio quoted unnamed officials as saying that Obama was coming to Israel with the following message: "Don't attack Iran, let me handle matters with the Iranians according to my understanding, and if necessary I will take action, we have capabilities that you do not."

That message has suddenly become a much more difficult one to sell, particularly to Netanyahu who has never lost his belief that it is his primary duty in life to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability.  It will not be lost on Netanyahu that the US contemplated attacking North Korea’s nuclear facilities as long ago as 1994, but it didn’t happen and now North Korea is on the verge of having a usable long-range nuclear capability.

Against the hawks, however, there is still the immense power that the US holds over Israel, and it is clear Obama does not favour an attack on Iran, at least not before the June presidential election in Iran, which could produce change and even possibly a more successful version of the failed Green Revolution that shook Iran in 2009.

In arguing for further delay in taking any military action against Iran, Obama will say that Iran hasn't yet crossed the red line set by Israel: namely accumulating enough uranium enriched to the 20% level to make one nuclear bomb (about 250 kilograms), which is a point that Netanyahu himself accepts.  The Israeli military establishment is also mostly opposed to any unilateral move.

On 11 February, the day before the North Korean test, Netanyahu is reported to have told visiting American Jewish leaders: “The Iranians are closer to the red line.  They haven’t crossed it yet but they are shortening the time needed to cross it.  This must be stopped…”