Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Following the death of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez on 5 March, elections will be called within 30 days.  Chavez’s personally appointed heir, Vice-President Nicolas Maduro will win.  The key points are:

-Maduro’s win should ensure the continuation of the radical left-wing administration until 2018.

- Neighbouring Brazil and Colombia will push Maduro to moderate policy and to move towards a more digestible social democracy.  However, this would be to go against the increased radicalization envisaged by Chavez in his government plan for 2013-19 – and Maduro is a strong believer in the Bolivarian Revolution, as he is in the Cuban revolution.

- Maduro’s problem is that he lacks Chavez’s charisma and will, as a result, find it harder to gloss over Venezuela’s economic and social problems.

- Ramping up oil production will be essential to Maduro’s success and this may include deeper Chinese engagement.  China is already heavily invested in the Orinoco oil belt

- Those with a vested interest in the crony capitalism of the Bolivarian Revolution (including some sections of the military) are interested primarily in perpetrating their power, and should Maduro show signs of failing the most likely beneficiary will be the president of the national assembly, Diosdado Cabello, who was Chavez’s deputy in the ruling party.  Cabello will be the one to watch if Maduro falters.