Caribbean & Central America - March 2013 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Jostling has begun ahead of Panama’s May 2014 general elections. Last month two ministers, José Domingo Arias (health) and Rómulo Roux (foreign affairs), quit in order to compete in the ruling Cambio Democrático (CD)’s primaries which are due to take place on 12 May. The latest polls for the overall presidential race augur badly for the CD with former Panama City mayor, Juan Carlos Navarro (1999-2009), from the Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD) and Vice-President Juan Carlos Varela of the Partido Panameñista (PPA) well ahead. There have been other signs of apprehension on the part of President Ricardo Martinelli (who is constitutionally barred from running) regarding his party’s chances in next year’s vote.

As well as Roux, a former minister of Canal affairs (2009-2012), and Arias, the line-up of ten candidates due to compete in the CD primaries features another minister, Giselle Burillo (small and medium business). At the last minute, the CD’s presumptive candidate, Social Development Minister Guillermo Ferrufino, opted to run for Panama City mayor instead – the second most important political position in the country. The decision not to run by Ferrufino, Martinelli’s most popular minister, has been considered by some as a sign that the ruling party is less than optimistic about its chances in the presidential contest. The most recent poll by Dichter & Neira, published on 19 February, puts Navarro ahead with 24% of voting intentions, Varela on 15% and Ferrufino (then still the assumed CD candidate) on 6%. The survey interviewed 1,200 people nationwide between 15-17 February and had a 2.9% error margin. Navarro was confirmed as the PRD candidate in 10 March primaries, while Varela is expected to be formally selected in PPA primaries on 17 March.

The ruling party’s less than favourable prospects might seem surprising given the positive results in the two key areas of the economy and security. For the past two years, Panama has registered the highest economic growth rate of any country in Latin America & the Caribbean (closing 2012 with 10.5% on the latest figures from the United Nations Economic Commission on Latin America & Caribbean (Eclac). The government has also boasted improved security results; Panama’s national system of criminal statistics (Siec) registered 665 homicides in 2012, 94, less than in 2011, bringing the rate to 18 per 100,000 people, the lowest since 2007 (when it was 13.3, on figures from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime [Unodc]). While some attribute the CD’s current poor performance in the polls to high living costs, Dichter & Neira’s director, Leopoldo Neira Meléndez, had a different answer: transparency. He noted that just 19% of those polled consider the government to operate in a transparent manner. This perception has been fanned by scandals such as bribery allegations in April last involving Martinelli and Valter Lavitola, a former aide to the disgraced former Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi (1994-1995; 2001-2006; 2008-2011) [RC-12-05] while more recently in January, allegations that Martinelli had links to Financial Pacific, a brokerage house under investigation for insider trading [RC-13-01], further fuelled corruption concerns.

• Anti “floor-crossing” law

Local commentators highlight as evidence of Martinelli’s anxiety about his party’s prospects, the ratification of the so-called “anti-floor crossing law” (bill 550) at the end of January. The law, which Martinelli promoted, allows parties to expel legislators who switch parties once elected to the national assembly and will take effect in July 2014, after Martinelli leaves office. The bill was approved by 40 votes in the 71-member national assembly in which Martinelli’s CD – one of the main beneficiaries of the practice – has 36 deputies (up from the 17 with which it was elected in May 2009).

• Inflation

The cost of living frequently features as the public’s main concern in Panama. In Dichter & Neira January poll, 32% of respondents cited it as Panama’s main problem, above insecurity (19%); unemployment (7%) and public transport (5%). Overall inflation closed last year at 5.8% while the price index of food and drink registered a 7.2% increase.