Brazil & Southern Cone - March 2013 (ISSN 1741-4431)

With less than a month left before the 21 April general election, the political campaign in Paraguay is in full swing. While this has involved all manner of political (and personal) attacks in the debates, the main candidates have failed to directly address the most pressing political issue in the country- the need for a comprehensive agrarian reform. This omission may owe to the fact that the two leading candidates are politically closer than they appear; and they may be happy to leave the issue on the backburner. Nevertheless, the issue will have to be tackled sooner rather than later by the new López Palace resident.

Arguably, the inability to resolve Paraguay’s highly concentrated land ownership, which has afflicted Paraguay for decades, is what ultimately led to the impeachment of former president Fernando Lugo (2008-2012) last year. Lugo’s unexpected rise to power in 2008 on the back of the support of various peasant farmer organisations that had long advocated for agrarian reform, sparked huge expectations that his government would be able to deliver results in an area long neglected by the traditional Asociación Nacional Republicana-Partido Colorado (ANR-PC), which held power uninterruptedly for 61 years until 2008. Yet once in office, Lugo and his progressive followers quickly found themselves hamstrung by the conservative political forces that still dominated congress, not least Lugo’s nominal allies from the Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA). This made peasant farmer organisations, in particular the self-proclaimed landless farmers (carperos), increasingly frustrated with the Lugo government; and soon they began adopting increasingly bolder tactics, invading lands and demanding that the State take action. One of these invasions resulted in the fatal Curuguaty incident, which became the catalyst for Lugo’s impeachment.

The Lugo government’s mishandling of the Curuguaty incident not only resulted in the PLRA finally withdrawing its political support for Lugo, but other political organisations and movements on the Left, including peasant farmer groups, did so too. After the establishment of the new government headed by the PLRA’s Federico Franco, peasant farmer movements such as the Federación Nacional de Campesinos (FNC) welcomed the opportunity to work more closely with Franco to find solutions to their long held demands. Franco promised that solving the murky Curuguaty incident would be one of his government’s main priorities; and he also ordered the authorities to carry out the first official land registry survey in decades, so as to determine the existence of any idle or surplus lands. However, to date the Franco government has been unable to make much headway on either front. This is in some part due the problems it has had to contend with on the external front, with questions as to its legitimacy. Now that its time in power is nearing its end, agrarian reform proponents realise that it will be up to the next government to address the issue.

Not on the agenda

Although agrarian reform looms large over Paraguay’s current political situation, so far it has not been properly discussed by either of the leading presidential candidates. The electoral contest is quickly turning into the familiar two-horse race between the ANR-PC’s Horacio Cartes and the PLRA’s Efraín Alegre. Discussing agrarian reform is not in their interests, as neither of their respective electoral bases typically include peasant farmers.

Cartes’ failure to take on the issue is more understandable given the ANR-PC’s track record; and having a lead in the polls, he may not feel the need to have to go out of his way to endear himself to peasant farmers. However, Alegre’s failure to espouse a favourable stance on the issue is more puzzling.

Alegre is trailing in the polls by as much as seven percentage points and he and the PLRA are well aware that in order to improve his chances, Alegre must reach out beyond the PLRA’s electoral base.

In fact, the party has been actively looking not only to revive its previous successful electoral partnership with the Left, and also with others, all in an attempt to present the strongest possible challenge to Cartes. But these attempts have proven unfruitful [RBS-13-02]. In this context, peasant farmers represent an important source of votes that Alegre could easily exploit, particularly since he could just follow the lead set out by Franco on the matter and simply promise to deliver a reform based on the official land survey currently underway. However, Alegre has not yet publicly sought to take such a step.

Uninspiring debates

The first informal presidential debate was organised by Paraguay’s powerful agri-business lobby on 25 February. It featured four candidates: Cartes, Alegre, Miguel Carrisoza from the centrist Partido Patria Querida (PPQ), and Mario Ferreiro from the Avanza País (AP) coalition of small leftist parties. Cartes, Alegre and Ferreiro respectively are three best placed candidates in the polls. The fourth-placed candidate is Aníbal Carrilo Iramain from Lugo’s Frente Guasú (FG) coalition, but given that following AP’s departure from the FG the latter is now completely dominated by leftist radicals, it was not surprising that Carrillo failed to receive an invitation. The FG is identified with the Carpero movement and it would be expected that agrarian reform would be on Carrillo’s agenda.

During the mock debate, both Cartes and Alegre presented very similar government plans; vowing to fight poverty, which affects over 30% of the population, and to promote Paraguay’s economic development. But perhaps too conscious of their audience, both avoided broaching the issue of agrarian reform. The apparent differences didn’t stop Cartes and Alegre from launching vicious attacks at each other, with Alegre accusing Cartes of having links to organised crime, while Cartes accused Lugo’s former public works minister of corruption while in public office.

The omission in the debate was noticed by various civil society organisations including the Catholic Church, which on 10 March publicly called for the issue to be “urgently” addressed in the next debates, pointing out that the land issue it “perpetuated poverty in Paraguay”. Nevertheless, the mock debate proved the blueprint for the first official debate. This was held on 17 March by the communications studies & regulation centre (Cerneco), a local NGO. It also snubbed Carrillo, featuring the four candidates of the mock debate. This prompted FG to first try to stop the Cerneco debate from taking place, by lodging a legal complaint on the grounds that Cerneco was discriminating against the FG and Paraguay’s Left. After the complaint was thrown out of court, FG sympathisers staged loud protests outside the debate venue (see sidebar). In any event, Carrillo’s absence meant that the Cerneco debate largely resembled the previous debate, with Alegre and Cartes providing little by way of concrete proposals and dedicating most of their efforts to attack each other.

However, avoiding the issue of agrarian reform will become increasingly difficult in the next Cerneco debate, scheduled for 25 March. Just days after the first Cerneco debate on 22 March the FNC staged its 20^th annual national march in favour of peasant farmers’ rights. Some 3,000 demonstrators marched on congress in favour of a comprehensive agrarian reform, against genetically modified crops, and against “electoral lies”. The FNC secretary-general, Teodolina Villalba, explained that the FNC “has seen many governments come and go; but none has sought to resolve the land issue…that is why this march is against the electoral lie. Villalba added that “on 21 April we shall cast blank votes” as way of sending a message the political class.

• Cerneco debate problems

The Cerneco debate was held at the central bank (BCP)’s main theatre. While it was taking place hundreds of FG sympathisers staged a protest outside. At one point there was a power outage, restored thanks to the BCP’s own power generators. On 19 March a spokesman from Paraguay’s national electricity company, Ande, said that the company had not had transmission problems in the area and that a technical study suggested that the outage was the result of tampering; the FG protestors being the main suspects. Ande lodged a formal complaint with the public ministry calling for a criminal investigation.

• Unasur observer mission arrives

On 19 March an eight-member electoral observer mission from the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) arrived in Asunción tasked with accompanying the electoral process. The Franco government, which is not recognised by Unasur, refused to extend an invitation to the regional body to send an observer mission unless it lifted Paraguay’s current political suspension from the bloc. However, the mission was deployed after securing an invitation from Paraguay’s supreme electoral tribunal (TSJE). It promised to work with Unasur so as to ensure the transparency of the electoral process, which Unasur says is a pre-condition for the removal of Paraguay’s suspension. The mission, headed by Argentina’s Alejandro Tullio, includes representatives from Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay and Peru; but pointedly not from Venezuela.