Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

It seems certain that Hugo Chavez’s appointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, will win Venezuela’s 14 April presidential election comfortably .  Nevertheless, there are some signs of disquiet in the Chavista camp.

What seems to have slightly rattled the Maduro team is the news that homicides increased by 14% in 2012 to 16,072.  The murder rate is now 54 per 100,000 inhabitants compared with 48 in 2011.  This is more than twice the rate in Peru where this week the government felt compelled to announce the creation of an elite police intelligence team to crack down on criminal gangs.

The Chavista’s response to this challenge has been a typical one: they are blaming the rise in murders on the opposition.  Figures released by the government have sought to emphasize that violence is concentrated in states which are either currently under opposition control, or were until December’s regional elections.  Independent figures show that the violence is at least as bad in Chavista-run states.

Maduro has made much of the fact that the violence in Miranda, the state run by Henrique Capriles Radonski, his rival in the presidential election, is amongst the worst in the country, with a murder rate of 96 per 100,000 inhabitants.  However, the murder rate in many Chavista-run states in the east of the country, where there is no excuse for a lack of cooperation between governors and the central government in security matters, is also very high, according to the independent NGO Observatorio Venezolano de Violencia (OVV).  For instance, the murder rate in Delta Amacuro is 87 per 100,000; in Bolívar 83; Sucre 79; Monagas 62; and Anzoátegui 56.  Nueva Esparta, until recently in the hands of the opposition, was the lowest in 2012 on 54. 

Overall, the OVV figures show the violence to be generalized across the country.

Gang-related violence is not the only worry.  Political violence could also increase.  There was a relatively serious clash between pro-Chavez groups and opposition students in Caracas on 21 March.  The students were demanding greater electoral transparency.  Typically, Maduro claimed the protesters were part of a broader conspiracy to destabilize the government.  He also said that the students were funded by the US.