Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Israeli fears over economy.  On 25 March, Israel’s Finance Minister Yair Lapid said he was “very worried by the economic data presented to me” by senior Treasury officials.  Following discussions with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and “marathon meetings” with top officials, Lapid is reported to be planning to slash $4.3bn from spending. 

However, “detailed decisions” on the spending cuts have not yet been taken.  According to a report in the Jerusalem Post on 25 March, Lapid said: “After I finish the discussions with heads of the Treasury and the prime minister, I will turn to the Israeli public and present it with the state of the economy as it really is and the decisions necessary to return it to the right path.”

*** German arms smuggling.  Germany’s Customs Office of Criminal Investigations (ZKA) said in its 2012 report that the smuggling of arms and weapons to countries in crisis has been increasing rapidly.  According to the report, which local media sources have seen, there were 136 investigations for violations of the Military Materiel Law and the Foreign Trade Law, 35 more than in 2011. 

ZKA’s chief Norbert Drude was quoted as having particular concerns “about Iran’s aggressive procurement efforts”.  Drude is reported as saying that 75% of the investigations are related to Iran.  Specifically, Drude said that Iran is seeking technical equipment for the development of nuclear weapons.  He also mentioned biological and chemical weapons.

*** Egypt’s President Mursi opposes military intervention in Syria.  On 26 March, Egypt’s President Mursi told the Arab Summit in Doha: “Egypt rejects any foreign military intervention to resolve the Syrian crisis as the Syrian people are able to overcome this ordeal.”

*** Russian public’s biggest worry is corruption.  A recent opinion poll from the Levada Centre, conducted during February, indicates that Russians have become less worried about the economy and more worried about corruption, social inequality, and immigration.  Although inflation still tops the list of worries, with 68% of respondents citing it as their biggest worry, this is down three percentage points since 2010.  Those worried by unemployment has also dropped from 47% to 35%.  Corruption, on the other hand, now concerns 39%, up significantly from 28%.

Another area that is rising up the scale of worries, albeit from a low base, is immigration.  17% now express concern about this as against 10% in 2010.  Inequality now worries 35% as against 29% in 2010.  Civil rights and democratic freedoms, on the other hand, seem hardly to be a concern at all, troubling just 4% of respondents.