Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

In our briefing last week on the Cyprus crisis (Premature Turkish triumphalism), we pointed out that a number of scenarios for Europe that only five years ago would have been considered beyond the realms of contemplation were now at least within the bounds of the possible, albeit at the extreme edges.  One of the scenarios we mentioned, and the reason why we suggested Turkish triumphalism was premature, was the possibility that a simultaneous exit from the euro of both Cyprus and Greece could reinvigorate Greek nationalist yearnings for enosis, that is union between Greece and Cyprus – the very issue over which Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1972.  We are, of course, still some way from a Greek-Cyprus euro exit, and even further from a serious revival of enosis.  Nevertheless, it was interesting to see the interaction this week between the speaker of the Cypriot parliament, Giannakis Omirou, and the leader of the right-wing Independent Greeks party, Panos Kamenos.

Before the election in May 2012, the Independent Greeks party had 11 MPs made up of 10 defectors from mainstream New Democracy party and one from PASOK.  The party won 33 seats (out of 300) in the parliamentary election in May 2012, but this dropped to 20 in the follow-up election of June 2012.

In response to the Cyprus crisis, on 24 March the Independent Greeks party joined with the leftist Syriza to form a “great nationalist and social democratic front” for solidarity with Cyprus.  Kamenos said: “We want to send a message together in support of the Cypriot Greeks...Greek Cypriots should know that they are not alone, we are all together, we are all of the Greek people.”

At his meeting with Kamenos, the speaker of the Cypriot parliament said that the support of Kamenos and others in Greece “gives us hope and courage to endure this ordeal” and to escape “colonial bondage”.  Kamenos replied: "The effort of our European partners with their public statements to wear down and humiliate the Greeks continues in Cyprus too." 

This is, we suspect, only the beginning.

NOTE:  Out of Greece’s listed companies, only 72 reported profits in 2012, with 161 recording losses of 6.6bn euros.  If a number of companies that have failed to report their 2012 results were included, total losses could be over 10bn euros.