Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** 35th intrusion by Chinese vessels.  On Monday (1 April) three Chinese maritime surveillance vessels crossed into Japan’s territorial waters around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands for about five hours.  This was the first such intrusion since 18 March, but the 35th since September, when Tokyo purchased a large part of the disputed islands from a private owner.

On the same day, the director of China’s State Oceanic Administration (SOA), Liu Cigui, said: “China will maintain regular patrols in the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea.”

*** Russia’s ageing Pacific Fleet.  On 28 March, a spokesman for Russia’s Far Eastern Shipbuilding and Ship Repair Centre (DTsSS) was quoted as saying: "Currently, of about 80 ships and submarines in active service in the Pacific Fleet, about two-thirds are being used past their service life, some ships and submarines are not past their designated service life but past their inter-repair service life." 

The spokesman said that the fleet’s support ships are in a similar condition, with “more than two-thirds” being past their service life.  He added that the number of ships in Russia’s Pacific Fleet has decreased by more than 50% since 1991.

*** Japan’s PM not to visit war shrine.  It was announced on 29 March that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will not visit the Yasukuni war shrine during the three-day spring festival that starts on 21 April. 

The reason given was to ensure that there is no further deterioration in relations with China.  However, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman seemed unimpressed.  When asked to comment, Hong Lei responded by saying: “Only when Japan faces up to the past can it embrace the future.”

It is not yet known whether Abe will visit Yasukuni on 15 August, the anniversary of Japan’s surrender to Allied forces in 1945.  Abe refrained from visiting the shrine after he became prime minister for the first time in September 2006, unlike his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi, who infuriated China with his repeated visits. 

However, Abe did visit the shrine as leader of the opposition during last year’s autumn festival.  He has also said that it was “extremely regrettable” that he could not visit the shrine during his previous term as premier.