Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Twenty years on from the 1992-94 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, there is still no resolution in sight.  Azerbaijan lost 14% of its territory, including ‘buffer’ areas outside the Armenian-populated region, and still has 600,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs).  There have been many warnings in the intervening years of the potential for the resumption of war between Russian-backed Armenia and Turkish-backed Azerbaijan, but the fragile peace has persisted.  However, the current row over planned civilian flights from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh is a reminder  of how volatile the situation remains.

The latest indicator of continuing tension was the 12 April warning from Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is “a major threat to the security of Azerbaijan and the region as a whole”.

Aliyev told graduates from Moscow State International Relations Institute: “Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts should be returned to the side they legally belong to.  We are trying to give an incentive to the talks, however the opposite side’s position is to stall the negotiating process.” 

A looming trigger point for increased tension is the Armenian plan to commission an airport in Nagorno-Karabakh this summer.  Sources in the region say that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is not confident that it can prevent Armenia proceeding with the plan, or that it can prevent Azerbaijan acting to stop the flights.

In late March, the head of Armenia’s General Department of Civil Aviation (GDCA) said that the GDCA plans to permit civilian flights to the airport, situated between between the town of Xocali (Khojaly) and the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Xankandi (known as Stepanakert by the Armenians).  On 11 April, Azerbaijan’s Defence Minister Safar Abiyev said that flights would only be permitted when the dispute is settled.