Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Consternation is rising in the Sunni Arab world about President Muhammad Mursi’s changing attitude towards the Syrian civil war.  These concerns are focused not just on growing Egyptian opposition to any Western military intervention in Syria but also on signs of a growing understanding between Cairo and Tehran.  They are concerned that the Egyptian commentator Ahmad Rajab may well be right when he wrote on 30 April (in the Lebanese daily al-Akhbar): “Egypt and Iran are preparing for the inauguration of historical transformations in the Middle East via the Syrian gateway.” 

We reported on the Egyptian opposition to a military intervention in Syria in our 27 March issue, quoting President Mursi’s 26 March declaration that “Egypt rejects any foreign military intervention to resolve the Syrian crisis as the Syrian people are able to overcome this ordeal.”  In its 30 April report, al-Akhbar added that it had heard from “a senior Egyptian diplomatic source” about the rising concerns in Cairo that there was a serious US move to direct a military strike against Damascus, and that such a strike would open the door for other international interventions in the region “that will only bring greater disturbances and wider intervention in the region’s affairs”.

The same Egyptian diplomatic source went on to say that Israel could be a partner to any military operation against Syria and that “this would be contrary to Egyptian national security, despite Cairo’s public position towards the Syrian regime and its support for the Syrian opposition at every level”.

It is these fears that have pushed Egypt towards supporting Russian and Iranian efforts to secure a ceasefire between Damascus and the opposition.  According to the Egyptian diplomat quoted above: “Important understandings were reached during Egyptian President Muhammad Mursi’s recent meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin; in cooperation with Tehran these understandings may bring the opposition and the Syrian regime to sit at the same negotiating table.”

On Sunday (28 April), an Egyptian delegation went to Tehran for further discussions on this initiative.  The delegation was headed by the Egyptian president’s Assistant for Foreign Relations and International Cooperation Issam Haddad and the Chief of the Egyptian Presidential Office Mohammad Rifat al-Tahtawi. 

On his return to Cairo, Haddad said two things of importance.  First, he said: “Egypt is managing the Syrian crisis dossier with great precision and wisdom; the same goes for the dialogue with Iran over the situation in Syria…there is an agreement with Tehran regarding the need to develop a work plan that aims to create a peaceful political solution that helps put an end to the violence raging in Syria and achieve national reconciliation with the participation of the Syrian people.” 

Secondly, Haddad said: “The decision to resume diplomatic relations between Egypt and Iran is a sovereign decision that will not be influenced by anyone outside Egypt.”

One Kuwaiti politician complained this week that Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was moving closer to Iran “whose hands are soiled with the Syrian people’s blood”.  The Saudi Arabian view is equally hostile to Egypt. 

As we reported last week, the Gulf states are divided in their response to the Arab Spring.  Generally speaking, Qatar is backing the Muslim Brotherhood, the UAE is supporting the remnants of the old regimes, and Saudi Arabia favours the salafists. 

The Saudi Arabian interpretation of Egypt’s latest moves is that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has never severed its links with the Islamist revolution in Iran, which backed it in its struggle against the Mubarak regime, and that this connection outranks the cause of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria.  Furthermore, the Saudis say, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood views the sectarian rift between Sunni and Shia as a salafi problem, not a Muslim Brotherhood one.

In our 30 January issue, we argued that although Iran had so far been unable to secure a rapprochement with Mursi’s Egypt it had not yet given up.  We quoted Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi as saying: “Not much time has passed since the Egyptian revolution, and things will take time to settle.”  It would appear that Iran’s patience may be beginning to pay off.  JdeC.