Caribbean & Central America - May 2013 (ISSN 1741-4458)

*** DECISION TIME FOR CAYMAN ISLANDS. The Cayman Islands will go to the polls on 22 May following a period of considerable political turmoil. This turmoil stems from developments such as the arrest in December 2012 of Prime Minister McKeeva Bush of the United Democratic Party (UDP) accused of theft and corruption, and the threat of having direct rule imposed by the United Kingdom in November 2012 in response to Bush’s backsliding on implementing an agreed Framework for Fiscal Responsibility (FFR).

In the 2009 election, the UDP won nine seats to the five won by the People’s Progressive Movement (PPM) led by Alden McLaughlin. There was one independent elected. Since then, the political equation has been considerably muddied by defections from the UDP after Bush’s arrest. Five UDP members formed a minority government under Juliana O’Connor-Connolly.

The UDP and the PPM are fielding 12 and 15 candidates respectively for the 15 elected seats in the assembly. However, two other political groupings have also been formed: the Coalition for Cayman (C4C) and the People’s National Alliance (PNA), with seven and five candidates respectively. In addition, there are 17 independent candidates contesting the election. Bush, whose next court appearance is not until after the election, is still leading the UDP.

McLaughlin, the PPM leader, has said that “hell will freeze over” before he forms a coalition government which includes Bush. He has also said that he is suspicious of the Coalition for Cayman (C4C) because “there are strong links between certain C4C candidates and the [UDP]”. But the PNA, made up of UDP defectors now forming the interim government, has not yet announced exactly what its post-election tactics will be.

*** WARNER RESIGNATION SPARKS BY-ELECTION. Trinidad’s controversial National Security Minister, Jack Warner, was forced to resign from the government following a highly critical report released on 19 April by the Confederation of North, Central American & Caribbean Association Football (Concacaf) on his former role as Concacaf’s head. Warner and another former Concacaf leader, Chuck Blazer, were described as “fraudulent in their management”. On 26 April, Warner then also resigned his parliamentary seat of Chaguanas West, forcing a by-election which must be held by 8 August.

Warner has announced his intention to contest the seat and has launched his campaign for re-election. However, it is unlikely that he will be selected as the candidate for the ruling United National Congress (UNC). Chaguanas West has always been viewed as a bastion of the Indo-Trinidadian community, from which the UNC draws most of its support. Warner, as an Afro-Trinidadian, has been important to the UNC in widening its appeal beyond the racial divide.

*** A GOOD MONTH FOR SURINAME. On 26 April Malaysia’s state oil company Petronas said it had signed a US$25m investment deal with Suriname’s state oil company (Staatsolie). At the same time, the international ratings agency Standard & Poor’s raised its outlook on Suriname from stable to positive based on the premise that “large investments in the mining and oil sectors could lead to higher growth prospects”. S&P, which puts Suriname’s foreign and local currency sovereign credit rating at BB-/B, is projecting annual growth of 4%-5% for the next three years. Other foreign oil interests now active in Suriname include Norway’s Statoil Hydro, Apache Corporation, Murphy Oil, Kosmos Energy and Chevron.