Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

One of the interesting points about China’s 15 April incursion across the border into Indian Ladakh was the way in which India sought to downplay the incident.  Despite some near hysterical outbursts by the media and opposition politicians, the Indian government did its utmost to keep things calm.  However, this week’s visit to Japan by India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh confirms that India’s deep suspicions of China, and its fully paid-up status in the ‘contain-China’ axis.

Following the 15 April incident, Defence Minister AK Antony said that India “remains committed to a peaceful resolution of the situation through dialogue within the framework of agreements for maintaining peace and tranquillity”, and this was a position he maintained throughout.  On the other hand, former defence minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, chief of the Samajwadi Party, was probably closer to public opinion when he told parliament that China is India’s “biggest enemy”.  

Yadav said: “I have been raising this issue for the past eight years.  I had warned that that there will be a repeat of [the war of] 1962.  I even went and met the Prime Minister [Manmohan Singh] in his chamber, yet there was no response. Now, [External Affairs Minister] Salman Khursid is going to China.  To do what?  Beg before them?”  Yadav, whose party gives important external support to the government, accused the government of being “cowardly, incompetent, and good for nothing”.

Whatever Yadav’s misgivings about how the 15 April incident was dealt with, he will be feeling more comfortable following the prime minister’s visit to Tokyo.  Addressing the Japan-India Association and other groupings in Tokyo, Singh said: “Prosperity has not fully eliminated disparities within and between states, and there are growing threats to stability and security”.  He then went on to say:

“India’s relations with Japan are important not only for our economic development, but also because we see Japan as a natural and indispensible partner in our quest for stability and peace…in Asia…Our relationship with Japan has been at the heart of our Look East policy.”

Singh also emphasized the security element in the India-Japan relationship saying: “Japan is the only partner with whom we have a 2-plus-2 Dialogue between the Foreign and Defence Ministries.  We have also begun bilateral exercises with the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force.”

In another sign that the 15 April incident has taken its toll on India-China relations, on 24 May India’s Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai said that India was increasingly concerned about moves by China to develop infrastructure in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir.  Speaking the day after China’s Premier Li Keqiang signed a memorandum of understanding with Pakistan on the building of a transport corridor through the disputed territory, Mathai said: “Our views have been conveyed to the Chinese authorities.  We have serious reservations on it.”  The proposed transport corridor is to link China’s Xinjiang region with Pakistan’s Chinese built and managed port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea.

NOTE: Russia’s ambassador in India, Alexander M Kadakin, said on 23 May that Russia does not “feel comfortable” at the way in which India’s “newly acquired partners” were now being treated as favourably as Russia with regard to defence tenders.  He said: 

“Russia does not exactly feel comfortable when attempts are made to put us on the same shelf with others as regards opportunities for future contracts and tenders under the guise of equal chances for all including several newly-acquired partners or contract-seekers who had clamped sanctions against India."