Caribbean & Central America - June 2013 (ISSN 1741-4458)

With less than a year until the May 2014 election, President Ricardo Martinelli’s Cambio Democrático (CD) has picked former housing minister, José Domingo Arias, as its presidential candidate. Arias’s nomination has already boosted his standing in the polls which previously showed the two main opposition candidates: former Panama City mayor, Juan Carlos Navarro, of the country’s main Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD), and Vice-President Juan Carlos Varela, of the Partido Panameñista (PPA), well ahead.

In the 12 May party primaries, Arias convincingly beat his main rival, former foreign minister Rómulo Roux, by 67.7% to 27.4% in a nine-way race. Arias had the support of Martinelli (who is constitutionally barred from running) as well as the CD’s 31 national assembly legislators and other party heavyweights like Economy & Finance Minister Frank De Lima, and Social Development Minister Guillermo Ferrufino. This has already had an impact in the polls. The latest Dichter & Neira survey, published on 20 May, gives Arias 29% of voting intentions, up from just 3% the previous month. This now gives him the lead over the previous frontrunner, Navarro (on 28%) – albeit within the 2.9% margin of error. Varela is in third place with 25%. The survey polled 1,200 people across the country on 17-19 May. While another survey by Ipsos published on 28 May challenged these findings, showing Navarro ahead with 36% to 24% for Arias, with Varela again in third place with 16%, it suggests the CD’s chances are not as bleak as were previously thought to be the case. The Ipsos poll similarly surveyed 1,200 people nationwide between 17-20 May and had a 2.8% margin of error.

The CD has yet to announce its candidate for the second most important post in the country – the Panama City mayoralty which has been in the hands of the CD’s Roxana Méndez since January 2012 after the PPA’s Bosco Vallarino was forced out [WR-12-04]. However, the picture has since become clearer after the PRD picked a national deputy, José Luis Fábrega, as its candidate in the 2 June party primaries. Fábrega’s victory was promptly recognised by his only rival, Balbina Herrera, after preliminary reports showed that with more than half of votes counted, Fábrega received 60% of the vote to Herrera’s 38%. The contest, however, was marked by controversy after Roberto ‘Bobby’ Velásquez, who was favourite both overall and in the PRD contest, was forced to drop out on 28 May after the media leaked recordings of him allegedly threatening to cut off Fábrega’s tongue and break his legs. The 20 May Dichter & Neira poll on the full mayoral race had shown Velásquez – who dismisses the recording as a smear campaign - with 23% of voting intentions, ahead of Fábrega on 19% and the likely CD candidate, Ferrufino, on 8%.

• A time honoured practice

President Ricardo Martinelli’s recent establishment of new ‘autonomous’ agencies like a national public revenue authority (ANIP), and a national anti-corruption agency, created on 9 April and 25 April respectively, has left him open to accusations of seeking to extend his influence beyond his five-year mandate. The heads of both new entities are appointed by the President for seven-year terms. While the new ‘decentralised’ national anti-corruption agency replaces the national transparency council against corruption (a consultative agency and advisor to the executive), the ANIP, which will have “administrative, functional and financial autonomy”, substitutes the general tax directorate (which sat under the economy & finance ministry). On 25 May Martinelli also re-appointed Zelmar Rodríguez Crespo as head of Panama’s public services regulator, the Autoridad Nacional de los Servicios Públicos (Asep), for a seven- year term. The appointment was met with scorn given the country’s recent energy problems [RC-13-05]. Local commentators point out that with these new appointments, Martinelli is following in the footsteps of his predecessors. For example former president, Martín Torrijos (PRD, 2004-2009), created the Aesp and appointed Víctor Urrutia as its head for a seven-year term, although Urrutia was ejected after Martinelli took office.

• Party membership

According to the latest figures from the national electoral tribunal, the opposition Partido Revolucionario Democrático (PRD) had 559,451 registered members as of February 2013, representing 39% of all those affiliated to a political party. In second place, with 470,897 members (33% of the total), is President Ricardo Martinelli’s Cambio Democrático (CD) while the Partido Panameñista (PPA) has 241,126 members (17% of the total).