Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Putin’s ballistic missile warning for US.  On 11 June, during a visit to Interfax news agency, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned about the dangers of using ballistic missiles with conventional warheads.  He said: “In the States there is a debate about the question of using strategic ballistic missiles in conventional mode.  Can you imagine what a threat that is?  And if such a weapon is launched from somewhere in the world’s oceans and seas?  And if missile attack warning systems detect that this missile is flying in the direction of a nuclear power, how should that power react?  It – this power – how does it know whether this missile has a nuclear warhead or a non-nuclear one?  This missile will fall right next to its borders.  Can you imagine what a threat this is?”

*** Kremlin squeezes Dagestan ahead of Winter Olympics.  With the approach of the Winter Olympics in the Black Sea city of Sochi, Russia has been increasing security in the turbulent North Caucasus republic of Dagestan following nearly 20 years of non-interference.  A number of high-ranking officials have been sacked on the grounds that they might be connected to militants.  There has been a “sweeping purge” of officials linked to corruption scandals under a new acting head of the republic: Ramazan Abdulatipov.

*** Islamist destabilization in Niger.  Following the French-led intervention in Mali, Niger is now said to be facing an increased threat by the dispersed Islamist militants.  France said there were around 2,000 jihadists in Mali at the time of the intervention.  Out of its seven international borders, four are exposed to infiltration by Islamists, those with Mali, Algeria, Libya, and Nigeria.  Niger, itself, has 750 troops in Mali as part of the international operation against militants.

Until the Mali intervention in January 2013, Niger was largely unaffected by jihadist attacks.  On 23 May, however, it suffered two suicide bombings that killed 20 people, including 18 soldiers.  And on 1 June, Islamist militants attacked the main prison in the capital Niamey to help with the escape of dozens of prisoners.

Two Islamist groups claimed responsibility for the attacks: the Signed-in-Blood Battalion and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (Mujao).  The Signed-in-Blood Battalion is an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), while Mujao, a mainly Mali-based Islamist group, is a breakaway group from AQIM.  Mujao said the Niger attacks were "in support of our brothers in Nigeria and to punish Niger for its cooperation with France in the war in northern Mali".

There are an estimated 22,000 Malian refugees camping in western Niger, while another 6,000 are in the south, having fled Nigeria.