Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

This week will see China responding to last month’s US-Japan live-fire naval exercise.  It is joining Russia in its largest ever joint naval exercise.  On 2 July, the People's Liberation Army Daily reported that the PLA Navy and the Russian Pacific Fleet would stage its "Joint Sea-2013" exercises in the Sea of Japan.  The two militaries also plan to hold an anti-terrorism drill named Peace Mission-2013 in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk from 27 July to 15 August.

According to the announcement, made at a joint press conference between China’s chief of general staff General Fang Fenghui and his Russian counterpart Valery Gerasimov, China will send four destroyers, two escort vessels, and a supply ship.  This will be the largest number of Chinese naval vessels ever to participate in a joint exercise with a foreign power.  Xinhua news agency said that in total 18 vessels, three planes, five carrier-based helicopters, and two teams of special forces would take part in the exercises.

Fang said that the joint exercise was not aimed at any third party, but a Shanghai-based Chinese military analyst commented, no doubt correctly: "All military drills have imaginary enemies, otherwise it's just a game.  For the US and Japan, their joint drills in San Diego targeted China.  And the upcoming Sino-Russian exercises will obviously target Japan or even the US in response."

China continues to show scant regard for the concerns of its neighbours.  Ahead of an Asean foreign ministers meeting in Brunei this week, the Chinese Communist Party’s official organ, the People’s Daily, attacked the Philippines for pressing its claims to the Spratly Islands and then attacked Asean in general for being “an accomplice” to the Philippines in ganging up on China.  It added: “If the Philippines continues to provoke China…a counter strike will be hard to avoid.”