Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Japan and the Philippines to increase defence ties.  On 27 June, Japan’s Defence Minister Itsunorio Onodera and Philippines Defence Secretary Voltaire Gazmin agreed to strengthen defence ties between the two countries.  In a move clearly made with China in mind, Onodera said: "We agreed that we will further cooperate in terms of the defence of our remote islands, as well as the defence of our territorial sea, and the protection of our maritime interests."

Referring to the dispute between China and the Philippines over the Spratly Islands, Onodera added that Japan “is very concerned that this kind of situation in the South China Sea could affect the situation in the East China Sea where Japan is involved”.

Onodera also said that the two countries had agreed on the importance of the US decision to rebalance its forces towards Asia.  He said Japan and the Philippines had agreed to “work together to make the US rebalance a reality”.  Gazmin said that the Philippines is working on an “access agreement” for US forces.  He also said that Japan, as a strategic ally, would be welcome to a similar access agreement.

On the same day as this meeting, three Chinese maritime vessels entered Japanese territorial waters near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.  In response to Japan Coast Guard warnings to the Chinese vessels to leave Japanese territorial waters, one of the Chinese vessels responded with the message: “You are already in violation of Chinese law.  Please leave these Chinese-administered waters.”  Four more Chinese maritime surveillance vessels entered Japanese territorial waters on 1 July, making the 50th Chinese incursion since last September when the Japanese government purchased three of the five islands from a private owner. 

*** Iran unmoved by new sanctions.  New sanctions against Iran came into effect on 1 July, targeting trade with Iran’s shipping and automobile sectors, gold sales, and transactions using Iran’s rial currency.  Iran’s foreign ministry responded by saying: "We have no doubt that sanctions are a broken policy and we are surprised about why the American government and other governments who take part in these sanctions continually repeat a mistaken and failed policy.  Removing sanctions would count as a confidence-building measure and can assist in a resolution of the issue but increasing sanctions would have no result, apart from making the issue more complex and harder to resolve."

There has been no discernible change in Iranian policy since the election of Hasan Rowhani as president, but Rowhani does not take office until August.  Last week the head of Iran's atomic energy organization, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, said there would be no change in Iran's production of enriched uranium to produce fuel.  However, his predecessor Gholam Reza Aghazadeh did say on 2 July that “serious talks” with the Western powers were needed.