Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** North Korean economy grows.  On 12 July, South Korea’s central bank estimated that the North Korean economy grew by 1.3% in 2012, the fastest rate since 2008 when the economy was estimated to have grown by 3.1%.  In 2010 and 2011 the North’s economy is thought to have contracted by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. 

The Hyundai Research Institute (HRI), a privately funded South Korean think tank, is even more positive about North Korea’s per capita income, saying it grew by 8.75% in 2012 to $783.  However, this is a tiny 3.4% of South Korea’s per capita income of $23,113.  The North Korean increase is attributed mostly to improved grain production as a result of more favourable weather.  Two other socialist economies in Asia, Vietnam and Laos, have per capita income of $1,528 and $1,446 respectively.

*** Abe’s holiday message to China.  In a message released on 12 July ahead of Japan’s Marine Day holiday on 15 July, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reinforced Japan’s determination to protect its sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by China as the Diaoyu Islands. 

Abe said: “Peace and prosperity in Japan as a maritime nation are based on free, open, and peaceful oceans.  I will protect [Japanese] interests in stable marine traffic routes, territorial waters, and exclusive economic zones.”  He added: “I have decided to preserve…maritime order governed by law, rejecting any attempt to alter the status quo by force.” 

The nature of Abe’s words marking the holiday was said by Japanese officials to be “unusual”. 

*** Iranian fighters for Syria.  Kuwaiti sources say that Hezbollah has asked Iran to send 2,000 more Iranian fighters to Syria.  Although it is not certain whether this is in addition to the 4,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards who were said to have been committed to the Syrian fight by Tehran in June, it is the fact of the request that is interesting. 

The request has apparently come from Hezbollah because it is being stretched too thinly to protect its own areas of Lebanon, as seen in last week’s bomb attack on its southern Beirut stronghold and again in the roadside bomb that targeted a Hezbollah convoy near the Syrian border on 16 July.  Hezbollah is said to be finding it difficult to protect its key interests in Beirut, the Beqaa Valley, and the south of Lebanon at the same time as engaging in the fight to shore up the Assad regime in Syria.

*** Turkey targeting photographers.  The Turkish Association of Photographers says that 111 photographers were detained, targeted by violence, or had their photographs erased by police during the demonstrations in Ankara and Istanbul between 31 May and 8 July.