Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Iran feeling safe from Israel.  It has been our contention for some time that Iran does not believe that Israel will attack its nuclear facilities despite continuing threats from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.  Netanyahu says it is important to present Iran with “a credible military option”, but Iran appears not to believe the threat is serious and is not  frightened of saying this in public. 

The latest manifestation of Iranian insouciance about the Israeli military threat was a comment made by Iran’s ambassador to Jordan, Mostafa Moslehzadeh, who was quoted by the Iranian ISNA website on 19 July as saying: “Invading is part of their [Israel’s] nature as they invaded Palestine, Iraq, and Syria [sic], but they do not dare to attack Iran because they fear Iran’s response.” 

Our sources are of the view that this is Iran’s genuine assessment of the threat, not just bravado.

*** Turkey continuing to target journalists.  In last week’s issue we noted that the Turkish Association of Photographers was reporting that 111 photographers had been detained, targeted by violence, or had their photographs erased by police during the demonstrations in Ankara and Istanbul between 31 May and 8 July. 

On 21 July, the Turkish Journalists Union (TGS) said that 22 journalists have been fired from their jobs in connection with the Gezi Park protests, with a further 37 being obliged to resign.  TGS spokesman Gokhan Durmas said: “These dismissals and resignations are mostly related to censorship policies followed by some media outlets in dealing with the Gezi Park resistance.”

Durmas added: “Our colleagues worked hard for the public’s right to be informed, and they paid for it with their jobs.  Some have been censored, some had their TV programmes shut down.  There are even journalists who have been sacked due to their tweets.  A colleague has been dismissed from his job just for saying ‘hi’ to a protester.”

*** Rise in extremist propaganda in Uzbekistan.  Uzbekistan’s State Customs Committee has reported that the amount of Islamist propaganda material coming into Uzbekistan has increased substantially in the first half of 2013.  The committee’s press service said on 22 July: “The amount of illegal literature and materials seized in the first half of 2013 is twice as much as the total amount seized in 2012.”