Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Israeli attitudes towards peace.  A poll published by Israel Hayom on 29 July showed that 84.9% of Israelis are opposed to the release of Palestinian prisoners who have blood on their hands just to enable the resumption of direct negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.  A majority of 54.5% are against an agreement based on a return to the 1967 boundaries with other territorial concessions and border adjustments.

According to Palestinian sources, Israel is holding 5,100 Palestinian detainees, including 250 under the age of 18 years.  A total of 537 prisoners are serving one or multiple life sentences.

*** Security warning for Netanyahu.  Former Israeli deputy foreign minister Yossi Beilin has hinted at increased security dangers for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as he pursues a renewed peace process with the Palestinians.  Speaking on 29 July, and referring to the 1995 assassin of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, Beilin said: “There might be people who are very much against the negotiations, and we have to prepare…We never believed there would be a…Yigal Amir.”

*** India and Burma in navy talks.  Burma has long been seen as a virtual Chinese colony, but that is changing as the country opens up, and one of those most keen on encouraging this change is India.  On 29 July, Burma’s navy chief Thura Thet Swe met with his Indian counterpart Admiral DK Joshi in New Delhi to discuss the strengthening of navy-to-navy cooperation.  Ties have been strengthening over several years, and Joshi said that India wanted to take the existing “extremely cordial relations” to the next level.

*** US warning to China over “aggression”.  On 29 July, US Air Force General Herbert Carlisle warned China about the dangers of its aggressive behaviour in the East and South China Seas.  He said: “Being fairly aggressive runs the risk of creating the potential for miscalculation.”  He added that some of China’s actions could lead to unintended consequences.  He said: “It’s a complex, changing environment.  Every action has unintended consequences and second and third order effects.”

Carlisle pointed out that many of China’s actions are proving to be counter-productive, saying: “Some of their fairly assertive, aggressive behaviour has in fact brought our friends [closer] and they’re relying on us to be there and to be present.”