Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

While there has been a huge amount of attention, including by this service, paid to the maritime disputes between China and its neighbours in the East and South China Seas (particularly Japan and the Philippines), much less attention has been paid to tensions between China and India along their joint border.  This is partly because neither side is making much of recurring border incidents in public.  The Chinese and Indian leadership appear to want to keep relations on an even keel and are said to be negotiating a border pact for signing during a proposed visit to Beijiing by India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in October.  But that just makes the continued Chinese border incursions even more perplexing.

In the past few days, there have been renewed reports that China has been preventing the Indian army from patrolling along some sections of the border in Ladakh.  In one incident last week, Chinese troops prevented an Indian patrol from reaching two border posts that India says are clearly within Indian-controlled territory.  An Indian army source said: “The Chinese have erected an observation post to keep a vigil on the movement of Indian troops, and as soon as an Indian patrol party is ready to leave [to visit the border posts] they are intercepted midway and sent back.”  This renewed confrontation follows on from the 21-day stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops in April in the same area.

At the last Border Personnel Meeting (BPM), on 27 July, India objected to the construction of an observation tower on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Demchok-Fukhche sector on the grounds that it is in breach of the Peace and Tranquillity Agreement of 1993, which says that no construction work is to be undertaken along the LAC by either side.  China simply said the tower was a weather station.

At the same BPM, India listed recent incursions by Chinese troops inside Indian territory and complained about the “assertive posturing”.  According to the Indian news agency PTI: “All Indian units located on the LAC have been asked to maintain a tight vigil in their Area of Responsibilities (AOR) and launch frequent patrols to the higher reaches [of the border].”

The dates for Singh’s proposed visit to Beijing have yet to be finalized, but he is said to be keen to reciprocate Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s choice of India for his first foreign trip after taking office.  This desire to keep relations cordial is encouraging, but the desire appears to belie the reality.  As we reported in our 24 July issue, India is to raise a new 45,000-strong mountain strike corps for deployment along the border with China.