Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Paranoia in Sao Paulo.  On 4 August Bolivia’s President Evo Morales told the XIX Forum of Sao Paulo that the lives of anti-imperialist presidents were under threat.  He said “they”, meaning the imperialist powers, “will always try to find ways to end the life of anti-imperialist presidents…Our task now is…to care for the lives of our leaders”.  He said specifically that the life of Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro was under threat, but he also suggested that the leaders of Ecuador, Nicaragua, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Bolivia needed protecting.  He said: “It is our duty to care for our presidents”.  The event brought together representatives of leftist, socialist, and progressive parties in Latin America.  The final declaration emphasized the rejection of interference in the region by foreign powers.

*** Threat to France’s Rafale fighter jet.  France has decided to cut back its orders for the Rafale fighter jet manufactured by Dassault Aviation from the current 11 per year to just 26 over the next six years.  This has put even more importance on the finalizing of a major export deal with India, but the Indians are showing signs of hardening their bargaining position in the face of increased French weakness.  Former finance and foreign affairs minister Yashwant Sinha and Defence Minister AK Antony are among those reportedly stepping up the pressure by arguing that the news from France raises “serious doubts” about the life cycle costs of the Rafale.  To date, the Rafale has not secured a single export order.

*** Hamas targeting Israeli soldiers.  As the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Palestinian group Hamas contemplates the fall of the MB in Egypt and the need to tack back towards its former patron Iran, prominent Hamas leader Mahmud al-Zahhar has said that the group is to redouble its efforts to kidnap Israeli soldiers in order to secure the release of Hamas prisoners.  On 5 August he was quoted by the Palestinian newspaper Al-Risalah as saying: “All options are open before us in the light of Israeli intransigence vis-à-vis the [Hamas] prisoners and its humiliation of them and of the sons of our people.  We will do whatever we can to free them from the occupation prisons.”

On Iran, rather unconvincingly al-Zahhar attributed the current coolness in relations to the presidential election.  He said: “This is a period during which strategic relations and foreign files get frozen in Iran.”  He then added: “Through our contacts we notice that the Iranian leadership has not changed its position and the way it deals with the movement.”  This may sound optimistic, but there is no doubt that Hamas is making a concerted effort to get back in Iran’s good books, and there is no reason to suppose that a beleaguered Iran won’t respond positively.