Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

German intelligence agencies have been reporting a big rise in the number of Chechen migrants reaching German territory, and that amongst this number are significant numbers of people considered capable of being involved in terrorist activity.

The 15 April Boston Marathon bombing, perpetrated by two brothers of Chechen origin, refocused Western attention on Chechen radicalism, mostly brewed in the cauldron of the vicious fight for Chechnyan independence from Russia.  Chechnya, of course, is predominantly Muslim and its cause has become a jihadist one. 

There have been two wars with Russia, the first from 1994-1996 in which more than 100,000 people died; and the second from 1999-2000, which was then followed by a nine-year insurgency from 2000-2009.  Amnesty International says that the second war killed up to 25,000 civilians, however some estimates say that as many as 200,000 civilians were killed during the course of the two wars. 

The degree to which any of this had an impact on the minds of the two men who perpetrated the Boston bombings is a matter of speculation.  What is not in doubt is that the long struggle has led to the increasing radicalization of large sections of the Chechen population.  And this is what is increasingly concerning Germany’s security services.

The latest estimate from the German Office for the Protection of the Constitution is that amongst the Chechens living in Germany there are at least 200 supporters of the radical leader of the Caucasus Emirate terrorist group, Dokka Umarov.  Almost all of these suspects have entered Germany as asylum seekers, of which there were 3,200 from the Russian Federation least year, 70% from Chechnya.  It is thought that in total there could be 9,000 asylum seekers from Chechnya in Germany.  The asylum-seekers from Chechnya are being taken to Germany by professional people-smugglers who tutor them in the arts of asylum seeking.

At the beginning of July, Dokka Umarov issued a threat against the Winter Olympics to be held in February 2014 in Sochi in southern Russia.  In a video released on the Internet, he said: “They plan to hold the Olympics on the bones of our ancestors, on the bones of many, many Muslims who were killed and burned on our territory along the Black Sea coast.” 

Umarov said that it was the duty of jihadists to prevent this happening.  The German authorities are concerned that any attack, and/or its planning, could involve Chechen radicals now living in Germany.