Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has a big day on 30 August as it tries to re-establish its mass appeal and influence.  It has called for mass rallies after Friday prayers in Tahrir and Ramsis squares in Cairo, and in Giza, Duqqi, Mustafa Mahmud, and Sphinx squares in Giza.  The moves are being co-ordinated with Salafist and jihadist groups, and the MB has also been in contact with liberal and leftist groups.

The mass rallies on Friday will call for the restoration of the revolution and an end to military rule.  Opinion is divided on how well attended they will be, but there is no doubt that the MB sees Friday as a key day in its campaign for the restoration of ousted President Muhammad Mursi, the return to the suspended constitution and Shura Council, and the trial of people responsible for killing protesters.

Those who believe the turnout will be low say that the crackdown on leading MB figures is bound to have an adverse affect, but MB activists deny this.  MB spokesman Jihad al-Haddad said on 25 August: “People lead their revolution without leading figures or symbols.”  He added: “The Friday protests will be peaceful and we will not carry any arms or use any violence”.

Meanwhile, jihadist groups are continuing to gain momentum in the Sinai, where they have been attacking security bases, checkpoints, and gas pipelines to Israel on an almost daily basis since the deposing of President Mursi on 3 July.  More than 50 soldiers and 70 jihadists have been killed.

Three groups are said to be particularly active.  The largest is thought to be Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (Supporters of Jerusalem), which is linked closely to the Gaza Strip and also (it is said) to al-Qaeda.  Egyptian sources say the group has more than 2,500 members and is prominent in the towns of Rafah and Shaykh Zuwayid.  A recent funeral for one of its ‘martyrs’ in Shaykh Zuwayid is reported to have been attended by 3,000 mourners.

Also active across Sinai is Al-Salafiyah al-Jihadiyah fi Sinai (The Salafi Jihadists in Sinai).  The group has mostly targeted Israel, but on 11 August it issued a warning to the Egyptian army, saying it had “stepped out of its role of protecting the nation…to achieve the interests of the US and Israel.”

The third main group is the Majlis Shura al-Mujahidin fi Aknaf al-Quds (the Mujahidin Shura Council in the Environs of Palestine).  It is said to be the best organised of the three main groups, with over 1,000 members based in north and central Sinai, including in Shaykh Zuwayid and Rafah.  A defector from the group has been quoted in Egypt as saying that the group has carried out more than 15 attacks on gas pipelines.  It has also hit targets in Israel with missiles.  The group’s leader is the Jordanian Hisham al-Saidani.  He is opposed to Hamas rule in Gaza.

The animosity between Salafi groups and Hamas was well illustrated by the announcement on 20 August by the Palestinian jihadist group Ansar Al-Mahdi wa-Hawariyah that it had created a special squad to kidnap senior Hamas fighters for the purpose of swapping them with Salafists in Hamas prisons.