Caribbean & Central America - September 2013 (ISSN 1741-4458)

On the face of it, the People’s Partnership (PP) government led by Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar is having a torrid time, losing a previously safe seat in a late-July by-election to ousted minister Jack Warner and having to seek consensus with opposition People’s National Movement (PNM) leader Keith Rowley following a mid-August upsurge in violence.  In an attempt to regain the initiative, on 5 September Persad-Bissessar announced her third major cabinet reshuffle in three years.  But the underlying position may not be quite as bad as it seems.

Warner, it will be recalled, easily won the 29 July Chaguanas West by-election [RC-13-08], running against the United National Congress (UNC), for which he had held the seat before being ousted from the cabinet following a damning report on alleged corruption during his time as a hemispheric football administrator.  He forced the by-election by resigning his parliamentary seat, and then he astonishingly won the contest by 12,631 against the UNC’s 5,126 votes under the banner of his new Independent Liberal Party (ILP).

That this was a major setback and embarrassment for the prime minister and her UNC party (the dominant element in the coalition) cannot be denied; but there was comfort nevertheless in the fact that the PNM garnered just 422 votes, or 2% of those cast.  Equally, Warner has shown no sign of wanting to make common cause with the opposition.  After his success, while Warner said that he had increasingly little in common with the ruling coalition he also pointed out that the one thing they still do have in common is opposition to the PNM.

Following on quickly from the by-election setback, the government was forced into crisis talks with the opposition following the killing of six people within 24 hours in the second week of August.  The government also felt it necessary to launch two major police operations leading to the arrest of over 100 suspects.  The second of these operations included the deployment of 100 soldiers alongside 300 police officers and the arrest of 90 people.

The talks between Persad-Bissesar and Rowley took place on 22 August and led to an agreement for the deployment of a new rapid-response unit, the acquisition of 300 new police cars, a review of the Anti-Gang Act and procedures for the selection of the police commissioner, and a partial abolition of trial by jury for those charged with gun or drug offences.

But, as with the by-election result, not all is quite as bad as it seems on the security front.  The latest figures show that despite the mid-August surge, murders were still down by 22% compared with last year, at 236 in total.  This suggests that the homicide rate, after a rise to 32 per 100,000 in 2012, could be back down to the 2011 rate of 26.  This is considerably below the peak of 41 murders per 100,000 inhabitants reached in 2008.

The other piece of relatively good news from the government during August came from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  In its 12 August summary of its 2013 Article IV Consultation, the IMF reported that Trinidad & Tobago is “poised for a modest recovery in 2013” after a disappointing 2012.  The IMF is projecting growth of 1.5% for 2013.  It records unemployment as being 5% and core inflation (excluding food) as low as 2.2% in March.  In 2012 core inflation was 3.1%, with headline inflation reaching 9.3%.

The IMF noted that the government realized a deficit of 1.1% of GDP in fiscal 2011/12 as a result of a decline in energy revenues due to output shortfalls.  It also noted that gross government debt increased by six percentage points to 39% of GDP.  However, the lender described this as “manageable” and “agreed that the authorities’ macroeconomic policies are appropriately supporting the recovery in the near term given downside risks”.  This is just as well, as on 9 September Finance Minister Larry Howai presented another budget deficit, the fifth in five years.

But even if the news on the political, security, and economic fronts is not as bad as it could be, or as it has been presented in certain circles, Persad-Bissessar has still felt it necessary to reorganize her government, including appointing Gary Griffith as her fourth National Security Minister after Brigadier John Sandy, Jack Warner, and Emmanuel George.  Three other new ministers were introduced and eight changed portfolios.  In one surprise, Attorney General Anand Ramlogan held on to his post.

Whatever goodwill had been generated by cooperation between the prime minister and the leader of the opposition over the mid-August security crisis however was immediately dissipated by Rowley’s reaction to the reshuffle.  He said the prime minister was now “in her fourth year of chaotic government” and accused her of being “a lame duck operating now on incredulous utterances and insulting assertions”.  For good measure, he added: “It is clear that we are in the throes of the most severe political and governance crisis that our country has ever seen.  The country has lost all confidence in this government and this prime minister.”

The prime minister’s response was to promise to sleep less, saying: “If 18 hours a day isn’t enough for us to deliver then we shall have to give 20, find a way to power nap to recharge and deliver, deliver, delivery.  No excuses.  No explanations.  Just execution beyond the call of duty.  That is our mantra now.”

• “The talks between Persad-Bissesar and Rowley took place on 22 August and led to an agreement for the deployment of a new rapid-response unit, the acquisition of 300 new police cars, a review of the Anti-Gang Act and procedures for the selection of the police commissioner, and a partial abolition of trial by jury for those charged with gun or drug offences.”