Caribbean & Central America - October 2013 (ISSN 1741-4458)

The chances of former San José mayor, Johnny Araya (1998-2001; 2003-2013), who is running for the ruling Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN) in the 2 February presidential contest are looking increasingly bright. Some last-minute flip-flopping by his main rival, Rodolfo Hernández Gómez of the Partido Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC), weeks before the 18 October deadline to register candidacies is the latest sign of the continued problems afflicting the opposition. A victory for Araya – which would give the PLN an unprecedented third consecutive term in office – would be particularly remarkable given that the Laura Chinchilla government has the worst approval ratings of the last six governments.

A well-known figure in Costa Rica, Araya comes from PLN political stock; his uncle was former president, Luis Alberto Monge (1982-1986), while his brother, Rolando Araya Monge, a former public works & transport minister (1982-1984), PLN president (1995-1999) and PLN secretary general (1984-1988), unsuccessfully ran for the presidency in 2002. However, divisions within the PLN between the faction aligned with Araya and supporters of Rodrigo Arias, the brother of former president Oscar Arias (1986-1990, 2006-2010), who also had presidential aspirations, still linger. This was most recently reflected in Rodrigo Arias’s public criticism of Araya for failing to present a clear manifesto. Yet for the time being it would seem that Araya has the upper hand, bolstered by the return to the PLN of ‘exiles’ like his brother, Rolando; Wálter Coto, a former PLN secretary general (1988-1996) and deputy (1994-1998); and Antonio Alvarez Desantí, a former deputy (1994-1998), interior minister (1988-1990) and agriculture minister (1987-1988).

Araya has also managed to successfully distance himself from the current PLN administration which, despite managing reasonable economic growth and progress vis-à-vis security (see sidebar), remains deeply unpopular. The latest Unimer poll, released on 23 September, put President Chinchilla’s disapproval rating at 67%, while her approval rating was just 5%. This lack of popularity stems from the government’s perceived lack of progress with regard to its legislative agenda (with key initiatives such as its proposed tax reform having stalled); corruption - as reflected most recently in the May scandal involving Chinchilla’s use of a private jet linked to a businessman suspected of drug ties [RC-13-06]- and the mishandling of major infrastructure projects including the US$1.5bn modernisation of Costa Rica’s only oil refinery at the Caribbean port of Moín, which was suspended in June.

Opposition problems proliferate

The failure by opposition parties to register any alliances ahead of the 2 August deadline had already strengthened Araya’s chances. Deals had been mooted between the main opposition Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC) and the smaller outfits, Frente Amplio and Alianza Patriótica; the PAC and the PUSC; and the PUSC and the Movimiento Libertario.

Araya received a further boost with the 3 October announcement just two weeks ahead of the candidate registration deadline by Hernández, the former director of the national children’s hospital, that he was withdrawing from the race – only to change his mind two days later. The PUSC might have the fourth largest legislative presence but Hernández was second in the polls, with the latest Unimer survey giving him 10.6% of voting intentions, to 27.55% for Araya (still below the 40+% needed for a first-round victory).  

Hernández’s flip-flopping is unlikely to benefit his candidacy and has exposed major divisions within the PUSC. Having cited as grounds for his initial withdrawal, “backstabbing” within the party (he did not provide names), Hernández conditioned his return on the resignation of the PUSC’s executive committee by 19 October, including party president Gerardo Vargas, the secretary general William Alvarado and the treasurer Emilce Arias. The executive committee is aligned with ‘Renacer Socialcristiano’ faction that emerged in April 2012 in opposition to the ‘Convergencia Calderonista’ group loyal to former president, Rafael Ángel Calderón Fournier (1990-1994). At the time of writing Vargas and Alvarado were refusing to comply. Meanwhile Hernández’s own campaign manager, Humberto Vargas, announced on 7 October that he was quitting, further raising doubts over Hernández’s candidacy. Also indicative of continuing divisions within the party, Hernández called on Calderón -who in 2011 received a three-year prison sentence for corruption, which under Costa Rica law qualifies him for probation- and another former president, Miguel Ángel Rodríguez (1998-2002) - who in 2011 was also convicted of corruption but had his sentence overturned- to refrain from participating either directly or indirectly in the electoral campaign.

• Voter disaffection

The opposition’s continued failure to capitalise on the government’s poor approval ratings are also indicative of public disaffection with Costa Rica’s political system which, a May 2013 survey by the US’s Vanderbilt University’s Latin American Opinion Project (Lapop), suggests is at its highest since 1978 (just 56% of Costa Ricans claim to have any faith in the political system). One sign of this frustration with the old parties is the emergence of five new parties ahead of the 2014 vote, bringing the total number of parties registered to compete at a national level to 15.

These new outfits include: the Partido Avance Nacional (PAN), the Centro Democrático y Social (CDS), the Partido de los Trabajadores (PT), Nueva Generación and Patria Nueva. Four of these feature experienced politicians: the CDS, which has yet to name its candidate, is largely formed of former PUSC members including former education minister Guillermo Vargas (1998-2002). The PAN is fielding current independent deputy, José Manuel Echandi, who belonged to the PUSC and the Partido Unión Nacional (PUN). Patria Nueva has named José Miguel Corrales, who ran for the presidency for the PLN in 1998 but was defeated in its 2002 primary before leaving the party in 2005, as its candidate. Meanwhile the PT, which defines itself as the most radical option on the Left, is fielding union leader, Héctor Monestel, who was close to Vanguardia Popular in the 1970s.

• Unpopularity

Over the year top PLN members like former communications minister, Francisco Chacón, have declared themselves baffled at President Laura Chinchilla’s perennial unpopularity given economic stability (GDP growth reached 5% in 2012, above the 4.4% average for Central America) and improved security: earlier in the year, Security Minister Manuel Zamora highlighted that the homicide rate had dropped to 8.9 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2012 from 10.3 in 2011.

•  Polls

The latest Unimer survey, released on 23 September, gives Johnny Araya of the ruling Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN), 27.5% of voting intentions, ahead of Rodolfo Hernández Gómez of the Partido Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC) on 10.6%. Otto Guevara of the Movimiento Libertario (ML) is in third place on 9.7%, while Deputy José María Villalta of the small left-wing Frente Amplio is fourth with 7.8%. Languishing in fifth place, with 4.4% is academic and former diplomat, Luis Guillermo Solís, of the main opposition Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC), whose poor showing owes to his low profile. According to the Unimer poll, only 17% of respondents knew who Solís was (compared with 98% who knew of Araya).