Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

It would be almost impossible to exaggerate the level of Saudi Arabian and other Gulf Arab disquiet over the direction US policy in the Middle East is taking.  The one positive has been the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt.  Against that, the US appears to be on course for a rapprochement with Iran and has embraced a Russian plan for Syria that involves the survival of President Bashar al-Assad. 

The view, not just of Saudi Arabia but of most of the Gulf Arabs, was well put by former Kuwaiti information minister Sad bin Tafla al-Ajami in a commentary published by the Qatari daily Asharq on 7 October.  The former Kuwaiti minister wrote that the political courtship between Iran and the US has raised fears in the Gulf states “that an understanding will come at our expense, at that of our [Iranian-occupied] Emirates’ islands, and at the expense of Bahrain’s stability, and that it will give Iran a free rein in our countries…”

The fear is that Iran will be enabled to play a dominant role as the Gulf’s ‘policeman’, and that this licence for Iran will be underpinned by a rush by Western interests towards a newly opened Iranian market place.

Al-Ajami then referred to what has become a common refrain in the Middle East (and beyond), when he said: “This Arab Gulf anxiety over the sudden development in relations between the US and Iran coincides with a number of other factors such as the Obama administration’s weakness in terms of foreign policy and its indecisiveness over how to deal with the Syrian file.  It threatened a strike against Bashar’s regime then backed down in a manner that projected the image of the US as a superpower that can no longer be relied upon to help its allies in times of crisis [our emphasis added].”

The Gulf Arabs believe that if the US/Iran rapprochement develops (which they do accept is not certain), then Assad’s survival in Syria is certain, as is the maintenance of Iranian influence in Iraq and Lebanon.

The danger for the Gulf Arabs, say informed sources, is compounded by the absence of any strong Arab or other counter to Iran.  Israel, it is said, can no longer exercise decisive influence over Washington, while Turkey has been weakened by backing the wrong horses in Egypt and Syria and falling out with Israel.  Egypt, on the other hand, remains in turmoil.

What the Gulf states can do about all this is the matter of the most intense debate behind closed doors.  Many just hope that Israel will be proved right and that the attempt to mend fences with Iran will fail ignominiously.  Others are suggesting more proactive measures. 

One Jordanian diplomatic source, for instance, has reported “a serious Saudi tendency towards building closer economic relations with Russia and China”.  This, the Jordanian diplomat says, is intended to put pressure on the US by opening up the possibility of giving China and Russian interests preferential trade and investment access to the Gulf states.