Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Towards Afghanistan’s presidential election.  Registration as a candidate for Afghanistan’s 5 April 2014 presidential election closed on 6 October.  Informed sources say that the election is likely to go to a run-off between whichever candidate President Hamed Karzai supports and opposition leader Abdollah Abdollah, who came second last time with 31% against Karzai’s 49%.

One difference this time around is that the international community is likely to insist on the elections being more transparent.  This could favour Abdollah, who now enjoys the support not only of his allies from 2009 but also that of Vice-President Marshal Fahim, influential Hazara party leader Mohammad Mohaqeq, and the Hezb Eslami – all three of whom sided with Karzai in 2009.  Abdollah, who was foreign minister from 2001 to 2006 and now leads the largest opposition group, the National Coalition of Afghanistan, is half Tajik and has won the backing of most of the significant Tajik powerbrokers.

It is not yet certain whom Karzai will back, but his backing will be key as he should be able to persuade rival candidates to drop out of the contest and support his chosen one.

*** Israelis not hopeful of Rowhani.  An opinion poll published in Israel on 4 October showed that 84% of Israelis do not believe that Iran intends to halt its nuclear programme.  Furthermore 47% of Israelis don’t believe that President Obama will consult with Israel on everything to do with the negotiations.  Some 66% agree that Israel should stand alone against Iran if necessary.

*** Greece pledges itself to Israel.  One of the consequences of the fallout between Israel and Turkey has been a gradual coming together of Israel and Greece.  Greece’s Prime Minister Antonis Samaras was in Israel on 8 October pledging his country to a long-term strategic partnership with his hosts.  He said Greece and the Israeli people had much in common having both suffered from the Nazis, and that both were “united by common conviction, summed up in two powerful words: Never Again!”  He added that the relationship between the two countries was “a long term strategic partnership and we want to evolve it as such”.

Samaras called for cooperation between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel over energy resources, saying: “Greece and Cyprus and Israel can together become a beacon of hope for all nations and for all peoples in our area.”  It is doubtful if Turkey sees it like that.