Courcy's Future Threats - September/October 2013

A huge water source has been discovered in the arid Turkana region of northern Kenya which could supply the country for 70 years. Turkana is in the Rift Valley, and despite the presence of Lake Turkana it is one of Kenya’s most arid regions.

Two aquifers have been discovered, in the Turkana Basin and Lotikipi Basin, using satellites and radar. These results were confirmed through test drilling.

Last year, scientists released a map detailing the vast reservoirs which lie under much of Africa, and water sources can clearly be seen here under Kenya’s northern regions and under Turkana in the north-west in particular (see map).

Likely aquifer productivity

Source: Environmental Research Letters

Turkana is one of the hottest, driest and poorest parts of Kenya and was hit by a devastating drought last year. Many of the region’s inhabitants are nomadic herders who are especially vulnerable to a lack of rain.

Banditry is rife in the region, and this could prevent the benefits of the newly found water source and recently discovered oil reserves (see below) being realised.

Overexploitation and a lack of proper resource management could also be a significant threat to long-term gain.

Kenya’s Environment Minister Judi Wakhungu announced the water discovery at a meeting of the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (Unesco).

“This newly found wealth of water opens a door to a more prosperous future for the people of Turkana and the nation as a whole”, she said. “We must now work to further explore these resources responsibly and safeguard them for future generations.”

The aquifers are believed to hold some 250bn m³ of water. Ms. Wakhungu said Kenya currently uses about 3bn m³ per year.

“We’re hoping with the two test boreholes, the water should be available within a month. The first priority is to supply water to the people of the area, who have always been water insecure,” said Ms. Wakhungu.

Massive oil deposits have also recently been discovered in Turkana. As we discussed in our June 2013 issue of Courcy’s Future Threats, Tullow, the company already exploiting new oil reserves in Uganda, is planning to move forward with the tapping of the new discoveries in Kenya. It is pushing to build a new refinery and power plant in Hoima, and a new pipeline starting there and running via Lira, Moroto, the Turkana basin and on to Port Lamu. A guaranteed improved water source close to the Kenyan oil reserves will make life much easier for Tullow.

However, Abou Amani, Unesco’s Africa hydrologist, urged caution and said it was important not to “overexploit” the aquifers. “We need to put in place a sound management system,” he said.

The head of the non-governmental organisation Friends of Lake Turkana, Ikal Anglei, said the government also needed to engage more with local communities. “Unfortunately they’re not creating forums for us to engage with them,” she said. “It is critical for governments to realise they don’t… come up with programmes without community ownership… and linking it to economic development.”

A good way of bringing the local population on-side and generating, as Ikal Anglie said, “community ownership” is to make sure people see a tangible benefit as soon as possible. Rapidly creating the infrastructure to create widespread, managed access to the water would be a good start. To maintain popular support it will also be important for the local population to see some of the benefits of the oil industry, such as by making sure company’s working to exploit the reserves invest in other infrastructure in the region such as road building and schools projects.

Banditry

Banditry is a significant problem in the Turkana region, and contributed to food shortages in the recent drought. Groups that used to concentrate on cattle rustling have now taken to waylaying travellers on the roads, and fatal attacks are not uncommon. A typical tactic is to open fire on a vehicle using AK47s and then clear out the wreckage of anything valuable. Casualties are often considered an irrelevance to the bandits, who usually have particular interest in murder, but are indifferent to whether or not their victims survive.

As commodity prices have risen, more and more have turned to banditry to survive. If the authorities can provide some incentives to move away from crime again, though initiatives allowing local populations to see the benefits of the hydrocarbons industry, and ensuring the new water source is used well, some of these bandits will be happy to return to a less risky lifestyle.

Those of a genuinely criminal bent, however, will not be so easily deterred. The police are already using hard power as best they can to tackle bandits, with increased patrols and road checkpoints, but roadside attacks continue.

Major challenges remain if Kenya is going to make the most of the Turkana aquifers, and of the oil reserves. The discoveries are so new that it is not yet clear how successful the Kenyan authorities will be at rising to them.

• The discovery of two aquifers brings hope to the drought-hit region, tweeted Environment Minister Judi Wakhungu.