Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

We looked last week at Turkey’s moves to mend fences with Iraq and Iran.  We quoted  a source in Ankara as saying: “There are clear signs that the situation has begun to get better with Iran and Iraq…Turkish diplomacy is opening a new page in its relations with Iran and Iraq.”  Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu duly arrived in Baghdad on Sunday (10 November) to pursue this agenda, but it was noticeable that he was by no means given an easy ride.  Even the contentious issue of water was raised.

Davutoglu’s desire for better relations with Iraq was made as clear as it could be with a number of highly symbolic gestures.  He visited the Shia holy town of Najaf, and in order to demonstrate his mourning for the killing of Imam Hussein, which is commemorated during the month of Muharrem, the Turkish foreign minister wore a black shirt and a green tie.  He also held talks with two prominent, and politically important clerics: Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Muqtada al-Sadr.  And in his talks with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Davutoglu sought to play down differences over Syria, saying they were “not major”.

However, it was interesting to see al-Sistani raising the question of water.  A source involved in the talks said: “Al-Sistani complained about Turkey’s cutting of the flow of the water into Iraq and Turkey’s construction of dams on [the Euphrates and Tigris rivers].”

Al-Sistani reportedly told Davutoglu that Iraqis were suffering from water shortages and that if bilateral talks failed to solve the problem then it should go to UN arbitration.  Beyond the water question, the two mostly discussed how to avoid sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia Arabs in the region.