Caribbean & Central America - December 2013 (ISSN 1741-4458)

A few months ago, Johnny Araya, of the governing Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN) was beginning to look unassailable in the presidential election scheduled for 2 February 2014. Recent surveys, however, have electrified the race, with José María Villalta, of the small, left-wing Frente Amplio, now in the lead, according to the pollster, Unimer. Given the widespread rejection of the current president, Laura Chinchilla, and Araya’s own tin-ear during campaigning, his declining fortunes are unsurprising. But few expected Villalta to be the beneficiary.

The Unimer poll, published in the daily La Nación on 1 December, was comprehensive. Carried out from 8-20 November, the pollsters interviewed 2,416 people. Villalta won between 17-22% of voter intentions (up 10% since September); while Araya, a former mayor of San José (1998-2001; 2003-2013), and Otto Guevara, of the Movimento Libertario, were tied in second place, with between 14-19% of voter intentions. In a poll in September, Araya had won 38% of voter intentions. Also worth noting from the Unimer study: 29% of respondents said they were unlikely to vote.

A slightly smaller poll, of 1,706 people, by CID-Gallup which was subsequently published by the business daily La República, found Araya was still well in the lead, on 38% but it confirmed Villalta had made progress, he had risen 12 percentage points, to 22%, since its last poll in September. Guevara was third, on 19%.

Protests

Chinchilla’s approval rating, around 5%, is the lowest of any president in the Americas, despite her administration presiding over modest economic growth and a slight improvement in security. Key government initiatives, such as tax reform, have stalled; major infrastructure projects have been suspended and Chinchilla and her allies have had to fend off a steady slew of corruption allegations. A major demonstration last month called by trade unionists against tax reform plans, increased electricity costs and a cut in public sector benefits prompted an angry response from the president, who labelled it “unjustified and irresponsible”. Though the government claimed only 4,000 public sector workers joined the march on 11 November, it also said protesters had caused “significant” economic damage.

Araya, who previously had skilfully avoided associating himself too closely with the current PLN administration, criticised the strike; whereas Villalta expressed his support for the unions’ demands. This came on hard on the heels of a campaign blunder when he revealed he had no idea how much a typical casado (meat and rice dish) might cost, allowing his opponents to portray him as out-of-touch. But the biggest single factor in Villalta’s rise appears to have been the withdrawal of second-placed Rodolfo Hernández, from the Partido Unidad Social Cristiano (PUSC), in mid-October.

In a series of interviews with La Nación following the Unimer poll, the candidates sought to provide further clues as to their plans of government. Araya talked up his vision to boost spending on major infrastructure projects as an engine of growth and jobs. He also sited the social-democratic model of José Mujica’s government in Uruguay as a potential template for his government. Araya’s camp have also sought to paint Villalta, a 36-year old congressman and relative newcomer, as a dangerously untested, naïve leftwinger, in awe of Venezuela’s late former president Hugo Chávez (1999-2013).

Villalta used his interview to insist that there would be no privatizations of state services. He promised not to reduce payroll spending, but to cut bureaucracy and committed himself to reviewing the minimum salary to ensure that it covered the basic basket of goods. Guevara, a long-time veteran of Costa Rica presidential races, said that he wanted to remove all obstacles to doing business in the country, and added that he wished to attract much more foreign investment.

• Tax

Costa Rica has the second highest total tax rate in Central America and the Caribbean, behind only Nicaragua, according to a new report from the World Bank and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Regionally, Central America and the Caribbean’s Total Tax Rate (TTR) (the total cost of all taxes levied), is below the world average of 43.1%. But Costa Rica’s TTR comes in at 55.3%, according to the report, just after Nicaragua’s at 64.9%.