Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

It is interesting that Egypt’s Salafist al-Nour Party is providing support for the new Egyptian constitution and for the prospect of Defence Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi running for president.  The Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) has described al-Nour’s support of the constitution as “treason”.  A referendum is to be held on the new constitution in mid-January.

In many ways this is a surprise, given that the new constitution appears to downgrade the importance of Islam and entrenches the power of the military.  As we pointed out last week, while there is still a provision that identifies Islam as “the religion of the state” and Islamic sharia as “the main source of legislation”, Article 219 of the old constitution is missing.  This article defined the principles of sharia as “general evidence, foundational rules, rules of jurisprudence, and credible sources accepted in Sunni doctrines and by the larger community”.

The new constitution also adds that “verdicts of the Supreme Constitutional Court represent the reference when interpreting the principles of sharia”.

Not all Salafists are happy with this, because Yasir Burhami of the Salafist Call described the new constitution as the “worst in Egypt’s history”.  Complaints include the ban on forming political parties “along religious lines” and the entrenchment of military influence.

The new document says: “Defence Minister is appointed after the approval of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the provisions of this article are valid through two consecutive presidential terms after the constitution is put into effect.”

So what are we to make of al-Nour’s stance?  One obvious motivating factor is the split between al-Nour and the Muslim Brotherhood.  Having allied itself with the MB to bring down the Mubarak regime, al-Nour was a supporter of the campaign in June this year to oust the FJP’s President Muhammad Mursi.

But this isn’t really a full explanation for the current stance.  After all, it seems clear that the party, which came second in the 2011 elections winning 111 out of 498 seats in parliament, will lose support from Islamists over its backing of the constitution and will not gain non-Islamist votes in return.

Sources in Cairo are advancing a variety of explanations, including the possibility of a secret deal with the military to give al-Nour some kind of political role in the new dispensation while excluding the Muslim Brotherhood from any influence.  Alternatively, al-Nour may just have calculated that by being more pragmatic it can avoid the fate that seems to await the Muslim Brotherhood and that it can come to be viewed as an acceptable alternative for interaction between the state and the Islamist trend, which will not go away.

The other obvious motivator is the influence of Saudi Arabia.  Back in October, the head of the al-Nour Party, Younes Makhioun, gave an interview to Al-Monitor in which he expressed his opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood’s foreign policy, his strong opposition to Iran, and his support for Saudi Arabia.

On Egyptian foreign policy, Makhioun said: “With regards to Iran, I think that banning Iranian tourists from visiting Egypt was the correct decision.  Iran is an enemy state, based on our assessment in the al-Nour Party.  It is a state that supports a Persian project, seeking a return of the Persian Empire under a religious cover.  It aims to expand [its influence] in the region and control it.  It has ambitions and goals to weaken the role of Sunni Egypt, as well as that of Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states.  Iran is a dangerous country, seeking to export its own ideology to the Muslim world.”

These comments could have been written for Makhioun by Riyadh.  As could his further comments, when he added: “As for relations with Saudi Arabia, relations are good.  This is what is needed.  The same is true for relations with the UAE.  However, relations with Qatar are bad.  When talking about ties with Qatar, we also consider Al Jazeera, which is a Qatari channel.  Al Jazeera is playing a very negative role in Egyptian society...We hope to have good relations with all Arab countries, including Qatar and others.  We must temper the severity of these attacks and try to heal the wounds and achieve reconciliation, particularly during this difficult stage.”

The test for al-Nour will be the upcoming parliamentary elections, in which it needs to secure sufficient votes to validate its strategy.  But then it will face an even sterner test: navigating a path that is acceptable to the state without alienating the Islamist heartland.  Saudi patronage may help.