Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

North Korea watchers are having a field day following the 12 December execution of leader Kim Jong-un’s uncle Jang Song-thaek, and speculation about what this means has intensified this week with rumours that Kim’s aunt Kim Kyong-hui may have died. When the young Kim inherited his father’s and grandfather’s communist throne Jang Song-taek and Kim Kyong-hui were seen by many to be his key supporters. Little of certainty can ever be asserted about the internal machinations of the Pyongyang regime, but it is at least clear that Kim is now more his own man than he was before. Intelligence sources in Seoul believe that this will lead, initially, to an increased grip on power by Kim but that over the medium-term he will be more exposed and vulnerable to internal dissent.

One interpretation of the downfall of Jang is that the purge will give more room to hardline military factions, but there has been little evidence to support this assertion so far. On the contrary, in the first week of 2014 there was a noticeable reduction in criticism of South Korea and its president Park Geun-hye. In December, the KCNA news agency criticized Park in more than 70 articles. In the first week of January there was no criticism at all.

Our own standing assessment remains unaltered by recent events: the regime has only one interest and that is regime survival, and consequently the military threat from North Korea is hugely exaggerated given that the regime fully understands that serious military adventurism will lead to its downfall. This is not to say that such activities are without danger as the threat of miscalculation is ever present – but as none of Washington, Seoul, or Beijing see any possible advantage in war on the Korean peninsula this threat should remain manageable.