Courcy’s Intelligence Brief
Risk pointers
*** Japan’s latest move to secure territorial rights. On 7 January, Japan’s state minister for oceanic policies and territorial issues, Ichita Yamamoto, announced that the Japanese government is to take some 280 remote islands into state ownership in order to strengthen control of the country’s maritime territory. Yamamoto said: “We will register the remote islands as state property to enhance their management.”
Japan has about 400 islands, many of which do not even have names. Last year an advisory panel to Yamamoto recommended that the government set up a system to monitor ownership changes, to name the islands, and to survey their environment and the natural resources in surrounding waters.
This move comes at a time when tensions between Japan and China over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands continue to escalate, with the atmosphere exacerbated by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit on 26 December to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine to Japan’s war dead.
Against this background, Beijing will have been watching closely the visit this week to India by Japan’s Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera, which will be followed by a visit by the prime minister in late January. Onodera and his Indian counterpart AK Antony agreed to enhance defence exchanges in general and to hold regular joint training exercises between Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force and the Indian Navy. The first such joint exercise was held in June 2012 in Japanese waters and was followed up by one in the Indian Ocean in December 2013.
*** Egypt to vote on new constitution. Egypt is to hold a referendum on its new military-inspired constitution on 14-15 January. The 2012 constitution, drawn up by an Islamist-dominated panel, was approved by 64% on a turnout of 33%. The government is hoping to do better than that.
Political parties and movements that have announced they will vote "Yes" for the constitution include the Salafist Al-Nour Party and liberal parties such as Al-Dustur Party, Al-Wafd Party, and the Free Egyptians Party. The Popular Current and Tamarrud (Rebellion) movements are also campaigning for a yes vote. However, the Strong Egypt Party, the 6 April Youth Movement, the Revolutionary Socialists movement, and the No To Military Trials movement are against a range of articles in the new constitution, such as one which allows military trials for civilians in some cases. Another article they object to says that the defence minister can only be appointed with the approval of the military council.
The pro-Muslim Brotherhood National Alliance to Support Legitimacy (NASL), the Islamic Group, and the Salafist Call movement have all said they will boycott the referendum.