Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** More threats to polio vaccination.  Last week we alerted subscribers to a threat to a polio vaccination programme in Karachi, Pakistan.  The issue is important because of possible knock-on effects.  As we recalled last week, in 2003 the northern Nigerian state of Kano banned polio vaccination because of fears that it caused infertility and spread HIV.  Within 18 months the disease had reappeared in 12 African countries in which it had previously been eradicated.  On 28 January, it was reported that the resistance to polio vaccination in Pakistan had now spread to the Punjab.  Some fathers have been refusing to allow their children to be vaccinated on the grounds that the programme is part of an international conspiracy against Muslims.  They also claim that in previous years their children and wives were perfectly healthy without vaccinations.

*** Al-Qaeda targets Hezbollah.  Jabhat al-Nusra in Lebanon, a jihadist group with links to al-Qaeda, issued a warning on 26 January saying that in Lebanon “Hezbollah and all its bases and bastions are legitimate targets for us, wherever they are”.  The warning followed three days after a car bomb attack in Beirut’s southern suburbs, claimed by the group’s Syrian branch, killed four people.

Jabhat al-Nusra in Lebanon also warned Sunni Lebanese against “approaching or residing in or near [Hezbollah’s] bases, and avoiding gathering around its meeting points”.

*** Japan and China at each other again.  On 28 January, Japan’s education ministry said that it was revising teaching manuals for junior and senior high schools so that they show the Senkaku Islands (claimed by China as the Diaoyu Islands) and the Takeshima islets (currently under South Korean control and called the Dokdo) as being “integral parts of Japanese territory”.  Japan’s education minister, Hakubun Shimomura, said: “With the cooperation of our Foreign Ministry we will explain the country’s position to our neighbours.”

The manuals, it should be explained, have a big influence on teaching but are not legally binding.  However, revising the manuals at this time is an unusual move as they are usually revised only once every 20 years and the next revision was not due until 2016.

Beijing responded by calling on Japan to “stop provoking” China.  A foreign ministry spokesperson said: “The Diaoyu Islands and their affiliated isles have been an integral part of Chinese territory since ancient times.  We are greatly concerned about [the new guidelines] and have lodged a solemn representation to the Japanese side.”