Caribbean & Central America - February 2014 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Constitutionally Antigua & Barbuda should hold an election by 12 March, although in exceptional circumstances there may be a delay of up to 90 days, which the opposition Antigua Labour Party (ALP) says is what Prime Minister Spencer Baldwin is planning. Whatever the truth of this allegation, the ruling United Progressive Party (UPP) cannot be feeling overly confident about its chances of winning a third term in power, although it is putting up a good case.

The January budget statement was as much an election manifesto as a budget, and it began with a defence of the UPP’s record since being elected in 2004 and re-elected in 2009, particularly over what it called the rebuilding of trust with creditors. The statement noted that “whereas our arrears constituted approximately 50% of our total debt prior to 2004, through constructive engagement with our creditors they now represent less than 6%”.

The government has set out six targets for end-2020:

- Annual economic growth of 5%-6%

- a debt-to-GDP ratio of “or close to” 60%

- full employment

- capital investments averaging 10% to 12% of GDP

- an increase in per capita income to US$20,000

- greater benefits from membership of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS).

This is a highly ambitious programme, particularly on growth given that Antigua grew by just 1.2% in 2013 and is expecting growth of 1.9% in 2014, but the government’s argument is that the country is now set to reap the rewards of its prudent policies. Rather lyrically, the budget statement argued: “The policies of this government over the past few years could be likened to a farmer preparing his land: tilling the soil, removing any weeds and rocks that would impede growth of his crop, introducing fertilizer and irrigation systems, and planting seeds. The seeds that we have planted have begun to develop and Antigua and Barbuda is set to yield the fruits of this administration’s efforts.”

By contrast, lack of prudence is the point on which the government is seeking to attack the ALP in the run-up to the election, particularly on its proposal to abolish personal income tax. How, asks the government, is this proposed measure to be paid for? By, says the government, introducing new taxes or increasing other existing taxes. Alternatively, argues the government, they may have to cancel social programmes such as the utility subsidy for pensioners, free school uniforms, or school meals.

This line of attack may not be enough, however. The ALP is saying that the UPP is going to lose 15 out of 17 constituencies. A more independent assessment, from Caribbean Development Research Services (Cadres), suggests a slimmer 11-6 win for the ALP, but this poll was taken before the campaigning began in earnest and before the government presented its budget.

Before losing power in 2004, the ALP had dominated Antiguan politics for 30 years under the Bird family. However, if the ALP does win the upcoming election under its leader Gaston Browne, it will be its first success without one of the Bird family at the helm – except that Browne is married to Maria Bird, niece of former prime minister Lester Bird.