Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Now Taiwan becomes an issue between China and Japan.  As if there wasn’t enough cause for tension between China and Japan, on 17 February 70 Japanese parliamentarians from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) met to discuss bringing forward a law that would strengthen economic ties between Japan and Taiwan and which would be analogous to the US’s Taiwan Relations Act.  The group included Prime Minster Shinzo Abe’s younger brother.

China responded with a statement from the foreign ministry saying: “We firmly oppose the attempt to institute a so-called Japanese version of the Taiwan Relations Act by some Japanese lawmakers to strengthen ties with Taiwan.  We express grave concerns about the move.  The Taiwan issue concerns China’s core interests.  It also concerns the political basis of China-Japan relations in handling Japan-Taiwan relations.”

*** Russia agrees with US assessment on numbers of Syrian rebels.  On 17 February, a source in the Russian General Staff confirmed that Russia believes there are 110,000-120,000 rebels fighting the Syrian regime.  The source said: “Our assessment of the number of anti-government formations is about the same as the figures that were recently voiced by the US National Intelligence director James Clapper.”

On the question of foreign fighters in Syria, the same source said: “The most worrying symptom is the rapid growth in the number of foreigners that are fighting on the side of anti-government formations in Syria.  If the rate of growth of their number continues, then Syria could exceed the indicator of Afghanistan, where up to 35,000 foreigners fought against Soviet forces on the side of the mujahideen.”

*** Turkish public support corruption investigation.  The corruption enquiry in Turkey that came to light on 17 December and which has implicated members of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s inner circle has wide public support.  In a survey published on 17 February, 62.3% of respondents said that they did not believe the probe had an ulterior (anti-government) motive and that they view it as a legitimate judicial enquiry.  Further, 66.7% said that they believed the inquiry had not been allowed to proceed as smoothly as they would like.  In a further sign of public disquiet with the government’s handling of the scandal, 65.1% said that they believe the government is interfering in the judicial process and 63.6% said that they believe the government is applying systematic pressure to the media.  Curiously, however, only 12.1% said that they thought the 17 December bribery allegations would damage the ruling Justice and Development Party’s standing in the country.