Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

China and the United States continue to trade barbs over territorial disputes in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines.  But US strictures are having limited effect and some are arguing it is time for a change of tactics

In early February, the US’s Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Danny Russel made some exceptionally forceful remarks to a congressional committee about China’s actions in the South China Sea.  Amongst other things he said US concerns about Chinese behaviour “include…pressure on the long-standing Philippine presence at the Second Thomas Shoal”.  This had no effect on China at all.

Referring to it as Renai Reef, on 17 March China issued another statement against the Philippines’ “occupation” of the Second Thomas Shoal, saying that China “will never tolerate the Philippines’ occupation of Renai Reef” and that it is “resolved to safeguard our sovereignty”.

The trading of remarks continues, but with similar lack of effect.  On 1 April Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei was asked to comment on remarks made in Washington by US State Department official Marie Harf, who had accused China of provocative and destabilizing” actions.  According to Xinhua news agency, Hong Lei said that the US should “stop its irresponsible remarks” on Renai Reef and “its encouragement of provocation by countries involved in disputes over the sovereignty of the reef”.

China has been particularly infuriated by the Philippines seeking to submit its disputes with China in the South China Sea to international arbitration.  China wants to keep all its disputes on a bilateral footing where its bullying power is maximized.

One of the countries that watches these disputes closely is Australia, and there is a perennial debate in Australia about how far it should go in challenging China.  Prime Minister Tony Abbott, for instance, has been criticized by some for his apparently pro-Japan orientation, and some officials tend to take the view that Australia needs to show more sensitivity towards China.  But that view no longer seems to be in the ascendancy, and it has been interesting to see this week a commentary from the influential Lowy Institute arguing for a significantly more robust – albeit different – approach to China.

The commentary begins with the assertion that China will continue “to ramp up the pressure on  the disputed islands” in the East and South China Seas and that China is clearly not being deterred by the current US and Japanese policies, which Australia supports.

China is continuing with its assertive behaviour, it is argued, probably because it knows the US and its allies are very unlikely to risk their economic well-being by going to war for “these barren islands and coral atolls”.

What is suggested is that instead of relying on military deterrence, a strategy of exploiting China’s domestic weaknesses should be adopted.  A linkage should be made between “future Chinese actions over the disputed islands and external prying into Chinese domestic politics and internal matters”.