Courcy’s Intelligence Brief

*** Russian S-400s for China.  On 28 March, Russia’s Kommersant newspaper reported that President Vladimir Putin had given his consent in principle to the supply of the S-400 missile system to China.  Talks are said to be ongoing with regard to numbers and cost.  Delivery, however, would not be for two years.

According to Russian sources, earlier plans to sell the S-400 to China were blocked by Russia’s military top brass as well as by the Federal Security Service.  The former wanted to wait until the Russian military itself had received a certain number of the S-400s into service; the latter was concerned about Chinese reverse engineering of the system.  Russian sources say the S-400 “is capable of shooting down all enemy aerial targets that are known today”.

*** Chinese protest deaths.  On 2 April it was reported in Hong Kong that a protest against a planned petrochemical plant in southern China’s Guangdong Province had led to 15 deaths, with 300 people injured.  It is thought that up to 20,000 people have been involved in the protests.  China’s Internet communications office is said to have ordered censorship of media reports of the protest.

The government has so far only admitted to one person being killed as a result of the protest.  The protest is against a plant that would manufacture a toxic petrochemical product called paraxylene.

*** Neck-and-neck in Euro polls.  The left and right are neck-and-neck in opinion polls ahead of the 22-25 May EU parliamentary elections.  PollWatch 2014 says that the Socialists & Democrats Group and the centre-right Group of the European People’s Party will both win 212 seats on current predictions.  The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group is in third place on 62 seats, followed by the European United Left/Nordic Green Left Group on 55.  The European Conservatives and Reformists Group (which includes the British Conservatives and Poland’s Law and Justice party) are set to win 46 seats.

The Greens/European Free Alliance Group look set to win 38 seats, with the Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group on 36 seats.

Non-attached members are expected to win 90 seats, of which 18 are forecast to go to France’s National Front and 19 to Italy’s Five Star Movement.