Caribbean & Central America - April 2014 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Sixteen months ago, on 11 December 2012, opposition members of St Kitts & Nevis parliament filed a motion of no confidence which, if debated, they would win on the basis of two defections from the ruling St Kitts & Nevis Labour Party (SKNLP). The only trouble is that Prime Minister Denzil Douglas has managed to block the debate, and continue to govern, because he still has a majority in parliament through support from appointed senators. It’s a controversial tactic given that only elected members would be allowed to vote on the motion if it were to be debated. But whatever happens in the courts, where the issue now lies, time is running out for Douglas as a general election is due by January 2015.

Douglas is continuing to stick to his guns, arguing that because the SKNLP won 60% of the vote in the last election, it can’t have its mandate overturned just because two members elected on the SKNLP ticket have crossed the floor. What he has said, however, is that if the two offending members, Timothy Harris and Sam Condor, resign their seats and win re-election in by-elections, under the opposition banner, then he will resign.

Speaking on 1 April, Douglas said: “The Hon Timothy Harris and the Hon Sam Condor need to understand what they must do. Go back to the people and if they win their seats in by-elections and they are then on the PAM [People’s Action Movement] ticket, then I think there might be some consideration for action because I may then resign.”

Whenever the general election is eventually held, the SKNLP will face a more united opposition, and thus a sterner test, than in 2010. In the last election, the People’s Action Movement (PAM) won two seats, as did the Concerned Citizens’ Movement (CCM), with the Nevis Reformation Party (NRP), which has supported the government, winning one seat. The SKNLP won six seats.

In the upcoming election, the PAM and CCM will be allied with the People’s Labour Party (PLP – formed by Harris and Condor in June 2013) under the Unity Team banner. The great unknown is how much of an impact the Condor-Harris defection to the opposition will have. At the PLP’s launch, Condor said: “The immediate priorities of the party will be to agitate for a return to good governance and parliamentary democracy, Electoral reform, Integrity in public life, transparency and restructuring of the Sugar Industry Diversification Foundation (SIDF), ridding the country from the clutches of the IMF and pursuit of a unity Government construct.”

As it happens, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just given the government a timely boost of morale by declaring that estimated growth of 1.7% in 2013 is expected to increase to 2.7% this year and then “continue to strengthen over the medium-term towards its potential growth rate of 3%-3.5%”.

The difficult bit, however, is the fiscal consolidation. The overall balance has improved from a deficit of 7.8% of GDP in 2010 to a surplus of 10.6% of GDP in 2013. The combination of fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring has reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio from 164% in 2010 to 105% in 2013. An important factor in this improvement has been the strong revenue stream from the Citizenship by Investment (CBI) scheme. CBI revenues increased from 2.3% of GDP in 2010 to an estimated 13% of GDP in 2013.