Caribbean & Central America - April 2014 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves has hinted that he may call an early election, ahead of the December 2015 deadline.

Gonsalves heads the ruling United Labour Party (ULP), which won the December 2010 election with eight seats to the seven seats taken by Arnhim Eustace’s New Democratic Party (NDP). This marked the third consecutive victory for the Gonsalves-led ULP, but it was a drop of four seats from the 12 that the ULP held going into the last election and the bare minimum required to keep control of the House of Assembly.

Gonsalves is a divisive figure, portrayed by the opposition as a Marxist with unsavoury international associations such as Cuba and Venezuela. He is accused of electoral malpractice and of favouring cronies and supporters. But he can also pull off startling popular coups, such as this month’s agreement, brokered by international publisher Felix Dennis and funded in part by Venezuela, to supply a laptop computer to every secondary-school pupil.

Less convincing have been the continuing delays to the completion of Argyle airport, which was originally scheduled for 2010 but is now unlikely to be ready until 2016. Economic performance has also been poor since the 2008 global financial crash. In 2006 growth was 7.6%, and this was topped by an even better 8% advance in 2007. From 2008-2011, however, the economy contracted for four straight years (-0.6%, -2.3%, -1.8%, and -0.4%). In 2012 it returned to growth with a 2% advance. The economy is thought to have expanded by 1.2% in 2013 and is expected to grow by 2% in 2014.

With this poor run of economic luck, government finances have also deteriorated. General government gross debt was 57% in 2008 but over 70% in 2012.

On 29 March, at a supporters’ rally marking his 13^th anniversary in office, Gonsalves said: “Comrades, when I told you to go on your marks [for an election campaign], I wasn’t making sport you know…We’re going to give NDP a short rope as we do between now and the next general elections.” There have been suggestions that Gonsalves could call an election as early as July.